The Pandemic Blog

Yesterday’s numbers (from Worldometers, as of about 7 PM EDT March 30) Total US confirmed cases: 164,435 Increase in cases since previous day: 21,689 (vs. 18,965 increase yesterday) Percent increase in cases since yesterday: 15% (vs. 15% yesterday) Percent increase in cases since 3 days previous: 33% (vs. 37% yesterday) Total US deaths as of yesterday: 3,175 Increase in deaths since previous day: 686 (vs. 260 yesterday) Percent increase in deaths since previous day:  28% (vs. 12% yesterday) Expected* US deaths over course of pandemic:   85,749 (based on 4% case mortality rate) *This number assumes a) Total cases grow by 33% into the future (= yesterday’s 3-day growth rate in cases); b) New cases drop to zero on April 28, because of the lockdown; and c) case mortality rate = 4%. To consider a 6% mortality rate, multiply each projection by 1.5. For 8%, double it. For comparison, Italy’s case mortality rate is currently 11%. Projected as of April 7 ...

Yesterday’s numbers (from Worldometers, as of about 7 PM EDT March 29) Total US confirmed cases: 142,746 Increase in cases since previous day: 18,965 (vs. 19,525 increase yesterday) Percent increase in cases since yesterday: 15% (vs. 19% yesterday) Percent increase in cases since 3 days previous: 37% (vs. 44% yesterday) Total US deaths as of yesterday: 2,489 Increase in deaths since previous day: 260 (vs. 533 yesterday) Percent increase in deaths since previous day:  12% (vs. 31% yesterday) Expected* US deaths over course of pandemic:   97,133 (based on 4% case mortality rate) Expected* US deaths over course of pandemic:   145,699 (based on 6% case mortality rate) Expected* US deaths over course of pandemic:   194,266 (based on 8% case mortality rate) Projected as of April 5 (7 days from yesterday): These numbers assume we wait until April 5 to impose a total lockdown, and that new cases drop to zero on May 2. Total cases: 268,079...

Yesterday’s numbers (from Worldometers, as of about 7 PM EDT March 28) Total US confirmed cases: 123,781 Increase in cases since previous day: 19,525 (vs. 18,507 increase yesterday) Percent increase in cases since yesterday: 19% (vs. 22% yesterday) Percent increase in cases since 7 days previous: 412% (vs. 522% yesterday) Total US deaths as of yesterday: 2,229 Increase in deaths since previous day: Percent increase in deaths since previous day: 31% (vs. 31% yesterday) Minimum expected US deaths over course of pandemic: 63,033 , based on yesterday’s cases (assumes complete lockdown of US starting today, with new cases dropping to zero 14 days from now) Projected as of April 4 (7 days from yesterday): These numbers assume we wait until April 4 to impose a total lockdown, and that total new cases drop to zero on April 18. Total expected* cases: 509,978 Total expected* deaths over course of pandemic (based on 4/18 case figure): 259,697 Projected**...

When the Lamb opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living creature say, "Come and see!" I looked and there before me was a pale horse. Its rider was named Death, and Hades was following close behind him. They were given power over a fourth of the earth to kill by sword, famine, and plague, and by the wild beasts of the earth. (Revelations 6:7-8) Yesterday’s numbers (from Worldometers, as of about 7 PM EDT March 27) Total US confirmed cases: 104,256 Increase in cases since previous day: 18,507 (vs. 17,155 increase yesterday) Percent increase in cases since yesterday: 22% (vs. 25% yesterday) Percent increase in cases since 7 days previous: 438% (vs. 522% yesterday) Total US deaths as of yesterday: 1,704 Increase in deaths since previous day: 400 Percent increase in deaths since previous day:  31% (vs. 26% yesterday) Minimum expected US deaths over course of pandemic: 60,003 , based on yesterday’s cases (assumes complete lockdow...

If you’re looking for Tom Alrich’s blog on cybersecurity/NERC CIP, go here . Yesterday’s numbers (as of about 6 PM EDT March 26) Total US confirmed cases (from Worldometers): 85,749 Increase in cases since previous day: 17,155 (vs. 13,653 increase yesterday) Percent increase in cases since yesterday: 25% Percent increase in cases since 7 days previous: 522% Minimum expected cases 7 days from yesterday (April 3): 639,146 (up about 128,000 from yesterday) Minimum expected cases 14 days from yesterday (April 10): 4,763,991 (up about 1,000,000 from yesterday) Total US deaths as of yesterday: 1,304 Increase in deaths since previous day: 268 Percent increase in deaths since yesterday: 26% Minimum expected US deaths over course of pandemic: 2,572   (assumes  no new cases  starting today, and case mortality rate of 3%. Based on yesterday’s figures) Minimum expected US deaths 7 days from yesterday (April 2): 19,174 ...