The Pandemic Blog

Comment from Tom at 5:20 PM. The US now has 82,547 Covid-19 cases. This surpasses both Italy and China, and makes us number one in the world. And I don't see anyone coming close to us in the future, since this will continue to grow exponentially. Yesterday’s numbers (as of about 6 PM EDT) Total US confirmed cases (from Worldometer): 68,594 Increase in cases since previous day: 13,653 (vs. 11,160 increase yesterday) Percent increase in cases since yesterday: 25% Percent increase in cases since 7 days previous: 641% Minimum expected cases 7 days from yesterday (March 29): 460,944 (up about 44,000 from yesterday) Minimum expected cases 14 days from yesterday (April 5): 3,097,491 ( down about 140,000 from yesterday) Total US deaths as of yesterday: 1,036 Increase in deaths since previous day: 252 Percent increase in deaths since yesterday: 32% Minimum e xpected US deaths over course of pandemic: 2,058 (assumes no new cases starting today, and case mortali...

I’m now going to put up multiple posts on the Covid-19 pandemic each day, rather than one big one as I’ve been doing up until now. One post that I’ll do every day is a “ Numbers ” post, about the numbers – cases, deaths, etc. - that I’ve been tracking in the last few days. There will still be a primary post, and this is the first of those. I’ll always put it up last, so that it gets picked up by the email feed at night. You should check out the Numbers post, since it includes a disturbing trend - as if we needed more of those! - that I identified today. “I don’t take responsibility at all.”                 - Donald J. Trump, March 20, 2020 “At no point have (we) discussed a nationwide lockdown.”                 - Mike Pence, March 23, 2020 I couldn’t have said it any better than these two gentlemen did: The senior ...

Up until today, I’ve been putting up one post, which usually addressed more than one topic. I’ve decided I’m going to focus on just one topic in a primary post, and put up one or more “supplemental” posts, which will expand upon things I say in the primary post. I’ll put up the primary post last, so it will get picked up by the email feed. One supplemental post I will always do is “The Numbers”. Yesterday’s numbers (as of about 6 PM EDT) Total US confirmed cases (from Worldometer): 54,941 Increase in cases since previous day: 11,160 Percent increase in cases since yesterday: 25% Percent increase in cases since 7 days previous: 757% Expected cases 7 days from yesterday (March 29): 415,892 (up about 50,000 from yesterday) Expected cases 14 days from yesterday (April 5): 3,148,224 (up about 70,000 from yesterday) Total US deaths: 784 Increase in deaths since yesterday: 326 Percent increase in deaths since yesterday: 71% Expected US deaths over course of pand...

I now have two blogs:  https://tomalrichblog.blogspot.com/  (devoted to cybersecurity and compliance in the electric power industry) and  https://thepandemicblog.blogspot.com/  (devoted to...well, you know what!) . While I will continue to put pandemic posts on both blogs in the near future, if you're only concerned with pandemic issues (that's also a limited audience: only human beings) you might want to subscribe to the email feed on this blog, since it will only have pandemic-related posts. Yesterday’s numbers (as of noon EDT): Total US confirmed cases (from Worldometer): 43,734 Increase in cases since previous day: 10,168 Percent increase in cases since yesterday: 30% Percent increase in cases since 7 days previous: 838% Expected cases 7 days from yesterday (March 29): 366,445 (up about 80,000 from yesterday) Expected cases 14 days from yesterday (April 5): 3,070,417 ( up about 800,000 from yesterday ) Total US deaths: 582 Increase in de...

I now have two blogs: https://tomalrichblog.blogspot.com/ and https://thepandemicblog.blogspot.com/ . This post will be posted on both of them. Note that I’m not yet sure the email subscription service works on the latter, although I plan on posting every day here for the near future.   Yesterday’s numbers (as of noon EDT): Total US confirmed cases (from Worldometer): 33,546 Increase in cases since previous day: 9,339 Percent increase in cases since yesterday: 39% Percent increase in cases since 7 days previous: 812% Expected cases 7 days from yesterday (March 29): 272,251 Expected cases 14 days from yesterday (April 5): 2,209,527 Total US deaths: 388 Increase in deaths since yesterday: 86 Percent increase in deaths since yesterday: 28% Expected US deaths over course of pandemic: 1,006  (assumes  no new cases  starting today, and case mortality rate of 3%. Based on yesterday’s figures) Expected US deaths 7 days from yesterday (March 29): ...

This post was put up on my  other blog  on March 22. Today’s numbers (as of noon EDT): Total US confirmed cases (from Worldometer): 38,757 Increase in cases since yesterday: approx. 14,539 Percent increase in cases since yesterday: approx. 60% Total US deaths: 400 Increase in deaths since yesterday: 98 Percent increase in deaths since yesterday: 32% Expected US deaths over course of pandemic: 1,163   (assumes  no new cases , and case mortality rate of 3%) Note from Tom at 3 PM ET: I just checked the Worldometer site, and the confirmed cases have jumped by  over 8,000  since when I last checked, which was about 4 hours ago. I updated the numbers above, but I haven't updated them in any of the discussion below. So just say that any number you see down there will be maybe 20% worse - this includes all of the death figures (with exponential growth, any change in the base number gets reflected exponentially in the later numbers). For some...

This post was put up on my  other blog  on Saturday, March 21. I started writing these posts on the pandemic last Saturday. Every day since then, I've gone through the same cycle: Wake up in the early morning thinking about the various pieces of information I’ve read or heard about the pandemic the previous day – and start pondering something that seems particularly important. Read the  Wall Street Journal  in print and the  NY Times  online, as well as other online sources. Discover more disturbing information (also some relatively good news, but right now the great preponderance of news isn’t good). Sit down to write a post about this. Update the post later in the day as the bad news gets worse. Rinse and repeat the next day. So right now I’m at step 3. This morning, I woke up thinking mostly about two things: a) the fact that new Covid-19 cases in the US yesterday were up 5,000 from the previous day, to about 14,500 (let's keep perspectiv...