Good news: I now support a total* reopening of the economy!

  

* With just one very sensible condition, of course.

By the way, do you remember that, two weeks and a day ago, the daily White House briefing featured the good news – confirmed by Saint Anthony himself! -  that a report from University of Wisconsin said the growth in Covid-19 cases would turn negative by today. Of course, both Dr. Fauci and Trump himself didn’t make a big deal of the fact that the report assumed a lot more social distancing would be put in the two weeks before today. But after all, why scare people, when you have a stock market you need to fool at least until November (good luck with that, of course)?

This may astound you, but even though April 15 isn’t over yet, on April 14 the growth in total reported cases didn’t turn around; the daily rate of increase stayed at 5%, where it’s been for a few days. However, the daily deaths number did turn around, although in the wrong direction. The total deaths number jumped by 2,420 from April 13 (vs. about a 1,500 increase the previous day); so daily deaths increased at a 10% rate, vs. a 7% rate on the 13^th.

And I don’t think this number includes Gov. Cuomo’s announcement yesterday that New York had decided to count thousands of people who had almost certainly died of Covid-19, but who never even made it into the hospital, where they would have been tested.

So it’s with heavy heart that I have to state that it seems Saint Anthony once more contributed to a deception of the American public, even though he of course did this with the best of intentions – as he seems to have done all along, every time he’s praised the administration’s anti-pandemic efforts even though he knew without doubt that “praiseworthy” wasn’t at all an appropriate description of those efforts.

Since Saint Anthony doesn’t want to resign no matter how many insults Trump throws his way and no matter how many right-wing trolls give him death threats (which is why he’s now under 24-hour protection), I suggest the press and the nation ignore anything more that he says. From now on, just follow the numbers of deaths, since – as long as they include obvious Covid-19 cases that weren’t tested before the person died, whether or not they do today – they are much more reliable than the total case numbers, which are constrained by the ongoing huge shortage of testing capacity.

This means the numbers in Section II below are the ones to look at, since they’re all based on total deaths numbers. I call your attention to the weekly numbers in red, and especially the fact that it now looks like April’s total Covid-19 deaths per day will be about 2,900. When I wrote this post less than a month ago, I was saying that 1,000 deaths a day would be hell on Earth in April, vs. 2,000 deaths a day in May. Now it seems likely we’ll be at 3,000 deaths a day in April, and I don’t even want to tell you what the number will be in May (to be quite honest, I haven’t even calculated it myself). So I guess we’re in Hell Plus™ now.

Of course, unconstrained by Dr. Fauci’s statements that trying to reopen the economy (not that it’s totally closed now) in the near future is bound to be a bad thing, Trump continues to give his happy talk about reopening soon. Why, he’s even named a 20-person task force to oversee the reopening – although according to the NY Times, it seems he didn’t bother to ask a number of them beforehand if they might be interested in serving on this august group of future fall guys…ahem, I mean trusted advisors. But I’m sure they’ll all, including Jeff Bezos, jump at the chance to be able to rub elbows – probably literally – with our Great Leader. Maybe they can watch some videos of how the various generals in North Korea gush with praises of Kim Jong-un whenever they open their mouths, to see how they’re supposed to talk during the inevitable press conference after the first meeting of this group – but never mind, they can just watch videos of Mike Pence whenever he opens his mouth, which fortunately doesn’t seem to happen as much as it used to.

But I have a startling announcement to make: I now agree with President Trump! Against the advice of all the experts, I think the economy could and should be opened as soon as possible. But there are a few technical conditions that will need to be in place for that to happen.

In yesterday’s post, I laid out three things that Trump ought to be doing now, instead of planning for reopening. The first two – making testing freely available and putting together the capability to do massive contract tracing – need to be in place in order for any reopening to succeed. Of course, since Trump always trusts the experts (why, he himself has said he does!) and since the experts all agree these two things need to be in place (actually, in the Times yesterday, there was an interesting proposal from the Nobel-winning economist Paul Romer that, if there were a really massive increase in testing, and the government could test 7% of the entire US population every week, contract tracing wouldn’t be needed on such a huge scale), I can safely assume J that these will be in place when reopening comes. Although I regret to say that Trump has backed off his certainty on Monday that he has the sole power to order reopening, no matter what the states think. Yesterday, he said that of course he doesn’t have that power – it’s up to the governors. Don’t hold your breath waiting for him to explain why he suddenly changed his mind.

However, there’s another condition that needs to be in place, in order for the opening to be compatible with the idea that all Americans have equal rights: No American should be compelled to go back to work. This might seem a surprising thing to say, since I doubt anyone believes the police or National Guard are going to go to workers’ homes and force them to return to work at gunpoint. But there’s another way that people will be forced to go to work: If they and their families need the income so much that they have no other choice but to risk their life in order to receive a paycheck.

Of course, there’s temporary support available now for people who aren’t working, although unemployment insurance is only available to people who are laid off, not those who don’t want to work because they literally fear for their lives. But let’s say the economy completely opens by the end of May (probably the earliest that the need for massive testing could be met, anyway). Will that support still be in place then, and more importantly will a worker be able to make the decision then not to go back to work, because he/she knows that this support will continue for say the next 6-12 months at the least? Otherwise, they’ll often feel they have no choice but to go back to their job, even though it involves working at close quarters with a lot of people who might be infected.

In other words, workers will feel compelled to go back to work, even though there’s no gun to their head. Those of us who can work quite well from home will of course never have to make a terrible decision like this – but just about every American worker who can’t work at home will have to make it when the economy reopens.

How do we fix this? Of course, the answer is to put in place a guarantee of basic income[i] for at least 18 months (i.e. until the earliest date that a vaccine might be widely available, since that’s the one thing that will allow employers to say with complete sincerity that their workplaces are safe). This won’t eliminate the problem of people being forced to go back to work, since anyone with large debts or children nearing college age will often feel they need to take the chance and return to work. This will be especially true if they can receive their old pay level – or probably more, since employers will presumably try to make it as attractive as possible for people to return to work. But at least it will reduce the number of cases where people will literally have no money available for food or anything else (like copays under their Obamacare policy), and will be driven back to work by the starkest of choices.

So some sort of 18-month universal basic income guarantee needs to be in place before the economy could really restart, although even then there will be a lot of workers that feel economically coerced to return to work, even though they would prefer not to take the risk. Now, I’ll admit this is going to pose a problem for a total restart of the economy, since it means there will probably be a big shortage of workers willing to gamble with their lives. How can we make up that shortage?

I have a plan for that, too (and I’m not even Elizabeth Warren!): As you know, a lot of people of all political stripes - but especially those with the most to lose from a prolonged economic shutdown, namely the wealthier part of our society and their proponents in media outlets like Fox News and the Wall Street Journal, have been calling vociferously for the economy to reopen. And you can bet that, when the reopening order finally comes, those in charge of companies that need their workers back will try every means possible to persuade them to return – sometimes with higher wages, sometimes with hints about how their failure to return immediately will damage their career prospects, etc.

I suggest that all of these people, to prove that it really is safe for the workers to return, be required to work a certain amount of time every week – say 20 hours – on the “front lines”. Fast food executives should spend 20 hours a week fulfilling orders in the cramped quarters of one of their franchise’s kitchens. Factory owners should spend 20 hours a week working shoulder-to-shoulder with “regular” workers on the plant floor. Conservative talk show hosts – those who have been screaming for a reopening – should take orders in a restaurant, or serve as a greeter at Wal-Mart.

And since I’m feeling generous, I think these people should be paid the regular wage for those 20 hours, on top of whatever they make from their day job, since presumably their normal responsibilities won’t be decreased by having this extra responsibility.

Another benefit of this proposal is that, being on the front lines, the executives are much more likely to hear the other workers’ health concerns (which often – sad, but true – don’t normally trickle up to the executive suites), and order fixes quickly.

I think this is a winning proposal for all. Workers who don’t feel comfortable returning to work yet will know their family won’t starve because they chose not to return. Workers who do want to return will presumably feel that the additional incentives offered for their return outweigh whatever health concerns they still have. And most importantly, those who are so insistently clamoring for an economic reopening will know that they’re not just spouting empty words and advocating that other people do something they wouldn’t dream of doing themselves. They’ll have the satisfaction of understanding what it really means when we say all US citizens have equal rights – including the right not to be forced to put their lives in danger because of pure economic hardship.

As Mr. Trump recently said in another context, what’s there to lose?

Now, the Numbers

All numbers below are based on yesterday’s reported figures of total confirmed cases, total deaths and total recoveries, published on Worldometers.info. I’m happy to send my spreadsheet that calculates all of these to anyone who wants to check the calculations, although they follow the assumptions described below.

Note on April 15: This is the second day that I’ve used my new estimate of the case mortality rate: 7%, vs. the 4% estimate I was using. I did this as a result of a little spreadsheet “experiment” I did on Sunday, which seemed to show that 7% was a much better estimate. But if you think that’s too high, I’ll just point you to the actual case mortality rate we have so far (discussed at the end of this post): It’s 39% as of today. So if you think 7% is unrealistic (and it probably is), then it would be best to go with 39%. That will require multiplying all of my “set in stone” estimates of deaths (not the other death projections) by 5 ½ times! I hope that makes you feel better.

I. Numbers based on total cases, actual and projected

Total US confirmed cases: 614,246

Increase in cases since previous day: 27,073 (vs. 26,740 increase yesterday)

Percent increase in cases since yesterday: 5% (vs. 5% yesterday)

Percent increase in cases since 3 days previous: 15% (vs. 17% yesterday)

“Set in stone” US deaths* over course of pandemic:  158,708

*This number assumes a) Reported cases are a fairly accurate estimate of total cases; b) Total cases grow by 17% into the future (= yesterday’s 3-day growth rate in cases); c) We impose a massive lockdown, with prohibition of all non-essential travel, today; d) New cases drop to zero in 28 days, because of the lockdown, but they continue to grow at the current projected rate up to the 28^th day; e) testing and contract tracing are widely available by the 28-day mark; and f) the case mortality rate = 7%.

Projected as of April 22 (7 days from today):

These numbers answer the question: What would happen if we wait seven days to totally lock down the US, based on the assumptions below (which frankly are themselves wildly optimistic).

Total expected cases*: 893,017 (vs. 897,597 expected yesterday)

Total expected deaths set in stone** over course of pandemic: 230,046 (vs. 270,455 expected yesterday)

* The expected cases number assumes that total cases grow by 15% every three days (= yesterday’s 3-day growth rate in cases), for the next 7 days.

**This number assumes a) Reported cases are a fairly accurate estimate of total cases; b) Total cases grow by 15% into the future (= yesterday’s 3-day growth rate in cases); c) We impose a massive lockdown, with prohibition of all non-essential travel, on April 22; d) New cases drop to zero 28 days later because of the lockdown, but they continue to grow at the current projected rate up to the 28^th day; e) testing and contract tracing are widely available by the 28-day mark; and f) the case mortality rate = 7%.

Projected as of April 29 (14 days from today):

These numbers answer the question: What would happen if we wait 14 days to totally lock down the US, based on the assumptions below (which frankly are themselves very optimistic)?

Total expected cases*: 1,235,468 (vs. 1,287,346 expected yesterday)

Total deaths set in stone** over course of pandemic: 319,219 (vs. 393,285 projected yesterday)

* The expected cases number assumes that total cases grow by 15% for the next 7 days (= yesterday’s 3-day growth rate in cases).

**This number assumes a) Reported cases are a fairly accurate estimate of total cases; b) Total cases grow by 15% into the future (= yesterday’s 3-day growth rate in cases); c) We impose a massive lockdown, with prohibition of all non-essential travel, on April 29; d) New cases drop to zero 28 days later, because of the lockdown, but they continue to grow at the current projected rate up to the 28^th day; e) testing and contract tracing are widely available by the 28-day mark; and f) the case mortality rate = 7%.

Date on which 500,000 total pandemic deaths will be set in stone: May 3  

Date on which 1 million total pandemic deaths will be set in stone: May 17

Number of deaths set in stone on April 30: 433,164  

II. Numbers based on total deaths, reported and projected

(All of the numbers below are based on reported deaths, not reported cases and an assumed case mortality rate of 7%. The reported cases number is the basis for the set in stone deaths numbers above; however, there’s general agreement that reported cases are some fraction of actual cases. So the projections below are going to be much more accurate estimates of deaths than the ones above, at least in the shorter term)

Total US deaths as of yesterday: 26,064

Increase in deaths since previous day: (vs. 1,529 yesterday)

Percent increase in deaths since previous day: 10% (vs. 7% yesterday)

Yesterday’s 3-day rate of increase in total deaths: 27% (vs. 26% reported yesterday)

Date on which the number of new deaths on that day will probably exceed the toll of Sept. 11: April 20

Actual number of deaths during week ending April 11 (Saturday): 12,126

Projected* number of deaths during week ending April 18 (Saturday): 14,924 (i.e. >2,000 per day)

Projected* number of deaths during week ending April 25 (Saturday): 25,574 (i.e. >3,600 per day)

Projected* number of deaths during week ending May 2 (Saturday): 47,424 (i.e. >6,700 per day)

Projected* number of deaths during month of April: 86,819 (i.e. almost 2,900 per day)

Projected* number of deaths during month of May: You don’t even want to see this figure.

* Projected deaths for each day equals the previous day’s deaths, grown by yesterday’s 3-day percentage growth rate in new deaths, which as of today is 27%. The weekly number is the sum of the projected deaths for the 7-day period. Note that my estimated case mortality rate doesn’t affect these projections at all.

III. Reported case mortality rate so far in the pandemic in the US:

These numbers are also unaffected by the increase in assumed case mortality rate to 7%.

Total Recoveries in US as of yesterday: 36,948

Total Deaths as of yesterday: 23,644

Deaths so far as percentage of closed cases (=deaths + recoveries): 40% (vs. 39% yesterday) Let’s be clear. This means that, of all the coronavirus cases that have been closed so far in the US, 40% of them have resulted in death (compare that to the 7% mortality rate I’ve now using to calculate the “set in stone” total pandemic deaths numbers). Of course, this number will come down as time goes on and more cases are closed in which the victim recovered. But this number has gone down and up since Worldometers started publishing the recovery rate on March 26 (when it was 41%), and on about half the days, it’s gone up; there is still no sign of a downward trend. I’d say it’s more likely my 7% mortality rate will turn out to be too low, after the pandemic’s over and all of the bodies have been counted, than it will be too high.

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[i] Of course, there’s a sizable worldwide movement to provide everyone a Universal Basic Income now and in the future, which was already getting a lot of attention even before the pandemic. My college roommate and longtime friend, Dr. Michael Howard of the University of Maine, has been one of the leading proponents of this idea for at least 20 years.