A long war


  
Once again, the numbers are down today, which is a good thing. So my projection for total Covid-19 deaths from March through June is now about 250,000.

But keep in mind that it’s now clear that Covid-19 will be with us for 2-3 years (at least), unless a vaccine is found. We clearly don’t have the national will to stop the coronavirus cold, which would require a total national lockdown (including all non-essential travel), or else an absolutely massive rollout of testing and contact tracing. The virus will be with us through the summer (perhaps slowing down, even from the level now), but Dr. Fauci and other epidemiologists all say it will be back in the fall (and one scenario – based on the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic – has a much larger wave hitting us in the fall than the one we’re currently in). Maybe we’ll finally develop the will then to stop this in its tracks. I certainly hope so.

The numbers
These numbers are updated every day, based on reported US Covid-19 deaths the day before (taken from the Worldometers.info site, where I’ve been getting my numbers all along). No other variables go into these numbers – they are all projections based on yesterday’s 7-day rate of increase in total Covid-19 deaths, which was 17%.

Note that the “accuracy” of the projected numbers diminishes greatly after 3-4 weeks. This is because, up until 3-4 weeks, deaths could in theory be predicted very accurately, if one knew the real number of cases. In other words, the people who are going to die in the next 3-4 weeks of Covid-19 are already sick with the disease, even though they may not know it yet. But this means that the trend in deaths should be some indicator of the level of infection 3-4 weeks previous.

However, once we get beyond 3-4 weeks, deaths become more and more dependent on policies and practices that are put in place – or removed, as is more the case nowadays - after today (as well as other factors like the widespread availability of an effective treatment, if not a real “cure”). Yet I still think there’s value in just trending out the current rate of increase in deaths, since it gives some indication of what will happen if there are no intervening changes.

Week ending
Deaths reported during week/month
Avg. deaths per day during week/month
Pct. Change from previous month
March 7
18
3

March 14
38
5

March 21
244
35

March 28
1,928
275

Month of March
4,058
131

April 4
6,225
889

April 11
12,126
1,732

April 18
18,434
2,633

April 25
15,251
2,179

Month of April
59,812
1,994 (= 1 death every 44 seconds)
1,474%
May 2
13,183
1,883

May 9
12,592
1,799

May 16
13,594
1,942

May 23
15,902
2,272

May 30
18,603
2,658

Month of May
65,464
2,112 (= 1 death every 41 seconds)
109%
June 6
21,762
3,109

June 13
25,458
3,637

June 20
29,782
4,255

June 27
34,840
4,977

Month of June
124,155
4,138 (= 1 death every 21 seconds)
190%
Total March - June
253,488


Red = projected numbers

I. Total deaths
Total US deaths as of yesterday: 81,796
Increase in deaths since previous day: 1,009 (vs. 747 yesterday)
Percent increase in deaths since previous day: 1% (vs. 1% yesterday)
Yesterday’s 7-day rate of increase in total deaths: 17% (This number is used to project deaths in the table above)

II. Total reported cases
I no longer pay any attention to the reported case number. It is a huge underestimate of actual cases, which is at least 5-10 times what’s reported. This is because of the huge shortage of testing capacity. For reported cases to be anywhere near actual cases, we would need to be doing millions of tests a day. I believe the US has done fewer than 7 million tests since the start of the pandemic.
Total US reported cases: 1,385,893
Increase in reported cases since previous day: 17,930
Percent increase in reported cases since yesterday: 2%
Percent increase in reported cases since 7 days previous: 2% (this number is very suspect, since it was 15% yesterday. It reflects the fact that, 7 days ago, the number of cases spiked upward by 175,000– otherwise, it’s been in the 20,000-35,000 range for quite a while. It fell by 125,000 the following day, meaning tomorrow’s 7-day rate will probably be unreasonably high. Clearly, someone made a big mistake in reporting the numbers 7 days ago, and took it back the next day).

III. Deaths as a percentage of closed cases so far in the US:
Total Recoveries in US as of yesterday: 262,225
Total Deaths as of yesterday: 81,796
Deaths so far as percentage of closed cases (=deaths + recoveries): 24% (vs. 24% yesterday) Let’s be clear. This means that, of all the coronavirus cases that have been closed so far in the US, 24% of them have resulted in death. Compare this with the comparable number from South Korea, which is below 3%. The reason this number is so high is that total reported recoveries are so low. I’ve been assuming since March 26, when the recoveries number was first published, that it would rise, so that this percentage (which was 41% on March 26), would be far lower than it is now. This number is very high, comparable with Italy and France (China’s is 6%).

My guess is the fact that this number is still so high is just another indication of the ongoing shortage of tests, since if a person has clearly recovered, the hospital is unlikely to want to “waste” a test on them. But if it stays close to the current level even as testing capacity increases, this will be an indication of a deeper problem.


I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com

Comments

  1. Royce HowlandMay 13, 2020 at 8:05 AM

    Yes, the unfortunate reality is that we all should be thinking of the current situation as just Wave 1 of an overall lengthy pandemic. As I look at burgeoning outbreaks in southern hemisphere countries, the idea that SARS-CoV-2 will simply go away for good during our summer is just not credible. So far I've been avoiding contemplating what Wave 2 could be like; it's tragic and angering enough just understanding how we've failed to date in Wave 1.

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