Numbers can tell you interesting things, but a graph can tell a whole story

I noticed two striking things in today’s numbers, and another in a graph I saw today:

1. For the first time since at least early March, the 7-day average of reported new Covid-19 cases is going up. For the last three days, that average has been 9%. This obviously calls into question the narrative that we’re beating the novel coronavirus. This difference is even more striking in the actual new case numbers, which were in the low 20K per day range not much more than a week ago – yet of the past four days, three have seen new cases above 30K.

2. Literally every state (and DC) reported increasing cases yesterday. The list is led by California (with 5,528 new cases), Texas (5,112), Florida (2,926), and Arizona (2,196). Then we drop to a group with fewer than 1,300 cases, led by Mississippi, Georgia, SC, NC – and then four states in the 621-728 range, including Ohio, NY, PA and WA. So no state can look smugly at another and say “Hey, look at us. We’re getting through this thing.”

Third, in an article in the Washington Post this morning, there was a really striking graph of total Covid-19 cases in the US and the EU since March. This is literally a case of one graph saying what it would take at least a thousand words to discuss adequately. I don’t have time to write 1,000 words, so I’ll just summarize it:

• Both the US (population about 320 million) and the EU (population about 445 million) had a sharp initial climb (at seemingly identical rates of climb) in daily new cases from around zero in early March to above 30,000 in early April – although the EU’s peak was ahead of the US, since they were hit earlier than we were. In fact, the peak number of around 31,000 looks like it was close to identical in the US and the EU.
• Immediately after its peak, the EU’s cases plunged sharply to a low of around 4,000 in early May. It then spiked to 7-8,000 before declining again to around 4,000 today.
• After its peak, US cases declined slowly to a level above 20,000 in early June, and have in about the last two weeks climbed again to 27,000 a day (the graph is based on Johns Hopkins numbers, whereas the ones I quoted above, and in the Numbers section below, are from Worldometers.info). Note that this number is only 4,000 lower than the peak in April – meaning we have made almost no progress in growth in new cases, although new deaths have declined a lot (new deaths were over 18,000 a week in the middle of April, vs. over 4,400 last week).

So, with a population about 40% larger than ours, and after peaking at almost an identical level, the EU today has daily new case numbers that are about 15% of ours. Moreover, when theirs did spike recently, they brought them very quickly back under control. Will we be able do the same? We’ll know pretty soon. However, if you look at the statements of our leaders about having the virus under control, and the fact that the White House task force has held no press briefings since April and now only meets twice a week – as well as a host of other statements and actions by federal and state leaders – it’s not very likely we will.

The numbers

These numbers are updated every day, based on reported US Covid-19 deaths the day before (taken from the Worldometers.info site, where I’ve been getting my numbers all along). No other variables go into the projected numbers – they are all projections based on yesterday’s 7-day rate of increase in total Covid-19 deaths, which was 4%.

Note that the “accuracy” of the projected numbers diminishes greatly after 3-4 weeks. This is because, up until 3-4 weeks, deaths could in theory be predicted very accurately, if one knew the real number of cases. In other words, the people who are going to die in the next 3-4 weeks of Covid-19 are already sick with the disease, even though they may not know it yet. But this means that the trend in deaths should be some indicator of the level of infection 3-4 weeks previous.

However, once we get beyond 3-4 weeks, deaths become more and more dependent on policies and practices that are put in place – or removed, as is more the case nowadays - after today (as well as other factors like the widespread availability of an effective treatment, if not a real “cure”). Yet I still think there’s value in just trending out the current rate of increase in deaths, since it gives some indication of what will happen in the near term if there are no significant intervening changes.

Week ending	Deaths reported during week/month	Avg. deaths per day during week/month	Deaths as percentage of previous month’s
March 7	18	3
March 14	38	5
March 21	244	35
March 28	1,928	275
Month of March	4,058	131
April 4	6,225	889
April 11	12,126	1,732
April 18	18,434	2,633
April 25	15,251	2,179
Month of April	59,812	1,994	1,474%
May 2	13,183	1,883
May 9	12,592	1,799
May 16	10,073	1,439
May 23	8,570	1,224
May 30	6,874	982
Month of May	42,327	1,365	71%
June 6	6,544	935
June 13	5,427	775
June 20	4,457	637
June 27	4,460	637
Month of June	21,819	727	52%
July 4	4,623	660
July 11	4,792	685
July 18	4,968	710
July 25	5,149	736
Month of July	22,581	728	103%
Total March – July	150,597

Red = projected numbers

I. Total deaths

Total US deaths as of yesterday: 122,611

Increase in deaths since previous day: 362

Yesterday’s 7-day rate of increase in total deaths: 4% (This number is used to project deaths in the table above; it was 4% yesterday. There is a 7-day cycle in the reported deaths numbers, caused by lack of reporting over the weekends from closed state offices. So this is the only reliable indicator of a trend in deaths, not the three-day percent increase I used to focus on, and certainly not the one-day percent increase, which mainly reflects where we are in the 7-day cycle).

II. Total reported cases

Total US reported cases: 2,388,225

Increase in reported cases since previous day: 31,510

Percent increase in reported cases since yesterday: 1%

Percent increase in reported cases since 7 days previous: 9%

III. Deaths as a percentage of closed cases so far in the US:

Total Recoveries in US as of yesterday: 1,003,062

Total Deaths as of yesterday: 122,611

Deaths so far as percentage of closed cases (=deaths + recoveries): 11% (vs. 11% yesterday)

For a discussion of what this number means – and why it’s so important – see this post.

I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com