Spare us the “encouraging news”, Mike



There have been some pretty bizarre statements coming out of the Trump administration throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, but Mike Pence’s on Friday has to be one of the more bizarre. Pence spoke during the first press briefing put on by the White House coronavirus task force in two months (of course, that it’s been two months since the last briefing, and that the task force is meeting only a couple times a week, are two very telling facts. Of course, they don't have much to do anymore, since the pandemic is well under control now).

Quoting from CNN’s article “Pence said about half of new cases (are) among people under the age of 35, 'which is at a certain level, very encouraging news, as the experts tell us….As we know, so far in this pandemic, younger Americans are less susceptible to serious outcomes of the coronavirus…' "

This is bizarre – but certainly not out of character for Pence - for two reasons:

  • Pence seems to think there’s a shortage of the novel coronavirus, so if a young person becomes infected, an old person won’t be infected. Rest assured, Mike, that while the US has real shortages of PPD, testing capacity, contact tracing capacity, etc. we don’t face any shortage of the coronavirus itself! There’s more than enough to infect everybody in the US multiple times, thanks in part to the administration’s tireless efforts to promote this goal. Older people are still being infected, along with younger ones.
  • The idea that someone who doesn’t end up dying from Covid-19 can just pick up their life and continue as before is nonsense. Just take a look at yesterday’s post.

As I asked in March, I’m asking now: Why are these two clowns still in charge of the coronavirus response? Haven’t they done enough damage? Can we really wait until January 20 to get them out?


The numbers
Because my deaths projections have changed very little from those in yesterday’s post, I have omitted the normal table today. However, all of the actual numbers below are updated.

I. Total deaths
Total US deaths as of yesterday: 128,152
Increase in deaths since previous day: 503
Yesterday’s 7-day rate of increase in total deaths: 5% (This number is used to project deaths in the table above; it was 5% yesterday. There is a 7-day cycle in the reported deaths numbers, caused by lack of reporting over the weekends from closed state offices. So this is the only reliable indicator of a trend in deaths, not the three-day percent increase I used to focus on, and certainly not the one-day percent increase, which mainly reflects where we are in the 7-day cycle).

II. Total reported cases
Total US reported cases: 2,596,771
Increase in reported cases since previous day: 43,085
Percent increase in reported cases since yesterday: 2%
Percent increase in reported cases since 7 days previous: 11%

III. Deaths as a percentage of closed cases so far in the US:
Total Recoveries in US as of yesterday: 1,081,494
Total Deaths as of yesterday: 128,152
Deaths so far in the pandemic as a percentage of closed cases (=deaths + recoveries): 11% (vs. 11% yesterday)
For a discussion of what this number means – and why it’s so important – see this post.


I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com

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