Guaranteed failure, part I

I’ve come to realize that the most important of the current administration’s “programs” to fight the novel coronavirus (a very generous word indeed, since their only consistent program on lots of issues seems to be the absence of one) are almost guaranteed to fail because of the administration’s (and especially the president’s) own actions. This is the first of at least a few posts on this subject.

Unfortunately, perhaps the clearest example of this is the program that the administration is pushing hardest: the development of a vaccine and vaccinating enough of the US population (probably around 70%) so that herd immunity develops. As I’ve said repeatedly, it’s hardly a sure thing that the US – or indeed any other country – will develop a safe, effective and affordable vaccine and produce it on the scale required to vaccinate hundreds of millions of people in five years, let alone one. We’re still waiting for an AIDS vaccine, 40 years after that disease first appeared. And 18 years after the SARS coronavirus epidemic, there’s still no vaccine for that, either.

But let’s assume that this is indeed likely, as Dr. Fauci seems to believe. Then the question becomes getting people to agree to be vaccinated. This won’t be a problem in China, of course: You’ll get vaccinated or you’ll be put in some “re-education” camp with lots of other unvaccinated people. Of course, China hasn’t announced what their policy on vaccinations will be, but the point is in the end they don’t have to worry about people agreeing to be vaccinated. We do.

It’s no surprise that there’s a lot of opposition to vaccinations in the US in general as well as conspiracy theories about the dangers, and this applies across political persuasions (you won’t be surprised that Trump himself has been an anti-vaxxer previously). But, as this article in the Times points out, there’s a special obstacle that will face the Covid-19 vaccine (which is also supposedly its greatest attribute, if it’s developed): the fact that it’s obviously being developed and tested hastily, becauseTrump is doing everything he can to have some very positive news before the election (not that that will change the outcome, of course. We passed that point at least a couple months ago). If you’re a little inclined to be skeptical of vaccines anyway – even when a vaccine like measles has been around for decades and has proven that it’s safe – which way are you going to go when you’re asked to take a vaccine, and have your children take it, that has no track record at all so far, other than some obviously hasty trials?

Of course the name for the vaccine program, Operation Warp Speed, doesn’t exactly do anything to reverse that impression (I guess the administration decided that “Operation Take Your Time and get it Right” didn’t have the same sort of punch). The article points out that only half of Americans polled said they would be vaccinated. And “A poll in late June by researchers at the University of Miami found that 22 percent of white and Latino respondents and 42 percent of Black respondents said they agreed with this statement: ‘The coronavirus is being used to force a dangerous and unnecessary vaccine on Americans.’”

And I’m sure it will surprise you greatly that the administration hasn’t even thought about how the public will be sold on being vaccinated. They evidently think that Trump just needs to use his magical sales powers, and things will be fine. Well, an ABC/WaPo poll four days ago shows that only 34% of Americans trust what Trump says about the pandemic – that’s well short of the 70% needed for herd immunity. The poll also showed 54% trust what Biden says about the pandemic, so if the WH really wants to sell vaccination, they should have Trump do commercials with Biden (of course, Biden will be in Delaware) where they both push it. My guess is this isn’t too likely to happen.

However, there is one American whose statements on the pandemic have a huge level of trust – 68%. That’s Dr. Fauci. And being realistic to a fault, the Trump administration is doing everything to build that trust now, so that people will immediately jump into the (socially distanced) lines for the vaccine if and when it comes out, right?...Oh, you say they’re doing their best to get people to distrust Fauci? Then that doesn’t bode well for the success of the vaccine rollout, does it?

As I said, guaranteed failure. This is just the first example, and nowhere near the most important.

The numbers

These numbers are updated every day, based on reported US Covid-19 deaths the day before (taken from the Worldometers.info site, where I’ve been getting my numbers all along). No other variables go into the projected numbers – they are all projections based on yesterday’s 7-day rate of increase in total Covid-19 deaths, which was 4%.

Note that the “accuracy” of the projected numbers diminishes greatly after 3-4 weeks. This is because, up until 3-4 weeks, deaths could in theory be predicted very accurately, if one knew the real number of cases. In other words, the people who are going to die in the next 3-4 weeks of Covid-19 are already sick with the disease, even though they may not know it yet. But this means that the trend in deaths should be some indicator of the level of infection 3-4 weeks previous.

However, once we get beyond 3-4 weeks, deaths become more and more dependent on policies and practices that are put in place – or removed, as is more the case nowadays - after today (as well as other factors like the widespread availability of an effective treatment, if not a real “cure”). Yet I still think there’s value in just trending out the current rate of increase in deaths, since it gives some indication of what will happen in the near term if there are no significant intervening changes.

Week ending	Deaths reported during week/month	Avg. deaths per day during week/month	Deaths as percentage of previous month’s
March 7	18	3
March 14	38	5
March 21	244	35
March 28	1,928	275
Month of March	4,058	131
April 4	6,225	889
April 11	12,126	1,732
April 18	18,434	2,633
April 25	15,251	2,179
Month of April	59,812	1,994	1,474%
May 2	13,183	1,883
May 9	12,592	1,799
May 16	10,073	1,439
May 23	8,570	1,224
May 30	6,874	982
Month of May	42,327	1,365	71%
June 6	6,544	935
June 13	5,427	775
June 20	4,457	637
June 27	6,167	881
Month of June	23,925	798	57%
July 4	4,166	595
July 11	5,087	727
July 18	5,476	782
July 25	5,694	813
Month of July	23,491	758	98%
August 1	5,921	846
August 8	6,157	880
August 15	6,403	915
August 22	6,658	951
August 29	6,923	989
Month of August	28,130	907	120%
Total March – August	181,743

I. Total deaths

Total US deaths as of yesterday: 142,881

Deaths yesterday: 816

Yesterday’s 7-day rate of increase in total deaths: 4% (This number is used to project deaths in the table above; it was 4% yesterday. There is a 7-day cycle in the reported deaths numbers, caused by lack of reporting over the weekends from closed state offices. So this is the only reliable indicator of a trend in deaths, not the three-day percent increase I used to focus on, and certainly not the one-day percent increase, which mainly reflects where we are in the 7-day cycle).

II. Total reported cases

Total US reported cases: 3,833,716

Increase in reported cases since previous day: 63,578

Percent increase in reported cases since yesterday: 2%

Percent increase in reported cases since 7 days previous: 14% (vs. 15% yesterday)

III. Deaths as a percentage of closed cases so far in the US:

Total Recoveries in US as of yesterday: 1,775,450

Total Deaths as of yesterday: 142,881

Deaths so far as percentage of closed cases (=deaths + recoveries): 7%

For a discussion of what this number means – and why it’s so important – see this post. Short answer: If this percentage declines, that’s good. It’s been steadily declining since a high of 41% at the end of March. But a good number would be 2%, like South Korea’s. An OK number would be 4%, like China’s.

I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com