Not good news



Yesterday, the US experienced 1,908 Covid-19 deaths. This wasn’t the highest recent number; that was 2,384 on July 22. I had hoped that might be a peak and things would come down rapidly since then. But it looks like that was just another triumph of hope over reality – reality always wins in those cases. The even worse news is that yesterday was the first day the 7-day growth rate in total deaths was at 6%. The last time it was at this level was June 9, when it was in a rapid decline. We all know how that turned out.

Since my projections of deaths are based entirely on the most recent 7-day growth rate, I’m now projecting that deaths for August will be about 9,000 higher than I projected yesterday. The papers were concerned this morning that we’re passing the milestone of 150,000 deaths so far in the pandemic. However, my projections now show us passing 200,000 at the end of August. In early June, I was thinking we might never even pass that number. Shows how things have changed.

The question is no longer whether we can open schools safely in September – we can’t, except in a small number of areas. The question is whether we need to again lock down a lot of the country again, simply because we didn’t do it right the first time.

But don’t worry, President Trump still believes the answer to our problems – besides hoping that an safe, effective and affordable vaccine is developed – isn’t wearing masks, but it is hydroxychloroquine. And he retweeted a video to prove it, from a noted doctor who has said in the past that some diseases are caused by people who have sex with demons in their dreams. It’s great that our president is getting advice from such experts. No wonder we're doing so well!


The numbers
These numbers are updated every day, based on reported US Covid-19 deaths the day before (taken from the Worldometers.info site, where I’ve been getting my numbers all along). No other variables go into the projected numbers – they are all projections based on yesterday’s 7-day rate of increase in total Covid-19 deaths, which was 6%.

Note that the “accuracy” of the projected numbers diminishes greatly after 3-4 weeks. This is because, up until 3-4 weeks, deaths could in theory be predicted very accurately, if one knew the real number of cases. In other words, the people who are going to die in the next 3-4 weeks of Covid-19 are already sick with the disease, even though they may not know it yet. But this means that the trend in deaths should be some indicator of the level of infection 3-4 weeks previous.

However, once we get beyond 3-4 weeks, deaths become more and more dependent on policies and practices that are put in place – or removed, as is more the case nowadays - after today (as well as other factors like the widespread availability of an effective treatment, if not a real “cure”). Yet I still think there’s value in just trending out the current rate of increase in deaths, since it gives some indication of what will happen in the near term if there are no significant intervening changes.

Week ending
Deaths reported during week/month
Avg. deaths per day during week/month
Deaths as percentage of previous month’s
March 7
18
3

March 14
38
5

March 21
244
35

March 28
1,928
275

Month of March
4,058
131

April 4
6,225
889

April 11
12,126
1,732

April 18
18,434
2,633

April 25
15,251
2,179

Month of April
59,812
1,994
1,474%
May 2
13,183
1,883

May 9
12,592
1,799

May 16
10,073
1,439

May 23
8,570
1,224

May 30
6,874
982

Month of May
42,327
1,365
71%
June 6
6,544
935

June 13
5,427
775

June 20
4,457
637

June 27
6,167
881

Month of June
23,925
798
57%
July 4
4,166
 595

July 11
5,087
727

July 18
 5,476
782

July 25
 6,971
996

Month of July
28,098
906
117%
August 1
8,848
1,264

August 8
9,370
1,339

August 15
9,923
1,418

August 22
10,509
1,501

August 29
11,129
1,590

Month of August
44,749
1,444
159%
Total March – August
202,969



I. Total deaths
Total US deaths as of yesterday: 152,358
Deaths reported yesterday: 1,908
Yesterday’s 7-day rate of increase in total deaths: 6% (This number is used to project deaths in the table above; it was 5% two days ago. There is a 7-day cycle in the reported deaths numbers, caused by lack of reporting over the weekends from closed state offices. So this is the only reliable indicator of a trend in deaths, not the three-day percent increase I used to focus on, and certainly not the one-day percent increase, which mainly reflects where we are in the 7-day cycle).

II. Total reported cases
Total US reported cases: 4,498,887
Increase in reported cases since previous day: 65,355
Percent increase in reported cases since 7 days previous: 14%  

III. Deaths as a percentage of closed cases so far in the US:
Total Recoveries in US as of yesterday: 2,189,592
Total Deaths as of yesterday: 152,358
Deaths so far as percentage of closed cases (=deaths + recoveries): 7%
For a discussion of what this number means – and why it’s so important – see this post. Short answer: If this percentage declines, that’s good. It’s been steadily declining since a high of 41% at the end of March. But a good number would be 2%, like South Korea’s. An OK number would be 4%, like China’s.


I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com

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