We’ve declared victory!



It’s pretty clear that the Trump administration has decided that the fight against the novel coronavirus is over, and we’ve won.  In doing this, it’s following the advice that Senator George Aiken famously gave regarding the Vietnam War: “Declare victory and leave.” Why do I say this? Here are four items just from this weekend’s news, but I’m sure I could find more than a hundred if I had the time to look for them: 
  • In his speech on July 3 in front of Mt. Rushmore, Trump focused on the huge problems facing the US. Unfortunately, the fact that he devoted only half a sentence to the pandemic indicates that this isn’t one of those problems.
  • The mayor of Phoenix was quoted this morning as saying that she’s been trying to get new testing sites set up in underserved areas. Now that Phoenix really needs them, given the hospitalization crisis they’re in, she’s being told by DHS that they’re not doing that anymore. Clearly, Trump’s message at the Tulsa rally that he wanted to scale back testing – to keep reported (although not actual, or course) infections down – was no joke, but is being systematically implemented by DHS.
  • Last week, Mike Pence visited Phoenix (the trip had to be postponed by a day because about six of his Secret Service agents had tested positive before the trip), and declared the next day that everybody who needs a test can get one. This while people have to fill their tanks before they get in line at one of the city’s “drive-through” (an ironic term, if I ever heard one) testing stations, since those waits can easily exceed eight hours.
  • The Washington Post noted today that Dr. Fauci hasn’t been allowed to appear on TV news for more than three months, because – of course – the White House is deathly afraid he might tell the truth about the problems we’re facing. He is sometimes allowed to speak to Congress, since the administration has much less power to forbid those visits (although it has done its best to limit them). It continues to mystify me that the Good Doctor doesn’t realize yet that he can’t change the Administration’s course from within. He needs to quit and make his case publicly, both loudly and often. He especially needs to – as a free man - make that case in front of the one man who can actually force a change: Mitch McConnell.

Of course, Trump probably plans to use the Republican convention in late August to officially declare victory. The only problem is that, even if Florida allows it to happen given how bad things are there now, it’s very questionable that there will be any better turnout there than there was in Tulsa. After all, when the press says that Trump’s base is a “die hard” one, they don’t mean that those people are literally willing to die for his re-election.


The Numbers
As I have since Saturday, I’m omitting the usual table of projected deaths, because I think the current very low reported deaths figures probably reflect the July 4 holiday weekend, not a significant new drop in deaths (although I wish that were the case!). Since the effects of the weekend closing usually last a couple days into the week, I probably won’t resume the projections until Wednesday. But the numbers below are all up-to-date.

I. Total deaths
Total US deaths as of yesterday: 132,571
Increase in deaths since previous day: 253
Yesterday’s 7-day rate of increase in total deaths: 3% (This number is used to project deaths in the table above; it was 3% yesterday. There is a 7-day cycle in the reported deaths numbers, caused by lack of reporting over the weekends from closed state offices. So this is the only reliable indicator of a trend in deaths, not the three-day percent increase I used to focus on, and certainly not the one-day percent increase, which mainly reflects where we are in the 7-day cycle).

II. Total reported cases
Total US reported cases: 2,983,155
Increase in reported cases since previous day: 47,033
Percent increase in reported cases since yesterday: 2%
Percent increase in reported cases since 7 days previous: 13%

III. Deaths as a percentage of closed cases so far in the US:
Total Recoveries in US as of yesterday: 1,289,687
Total Deaths as of yesterday: 132,571
Deaths so far as percentage of closed cases (=deaths + recoveries): 9% (vs. 9% yesterday)
For a discussion of what this number means – and why it’s so important – see this post. Short answer: If this percentage declines, that’s good. It’s been steadily declining since a high of 44% in mid-April.


I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com

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