Why should we wear face masks?



Yesterday, I thought of a good response to anybody that says requiring (or even recommending) mask wearing is an infringement of personal freedom: Use the analogy of blackouts in England during the Battle of Britain in WWII.

It was certainly an infringement of liberties for the British government to force people to sit in the dark every night (or go to the nearest Tube station). On the other hand, if the alternative is letting the enemy bombers see where targets are and getting both yourself and your neighbors killed, perhaps a little infringement is justifiable. By not complying with the blackout order, citizens were endangering both themselves and their neighbors. The same can be said about people who don’t wear masks when social distancing isn’t possible.

Happy Fourth!

The numbers
I’m omitting my usual table of projected deaths today. The numbers reported yesterday are abnormally low for a Friday, but that might be because so many reporting offices were closed ahead of Independence Day. If the numbers continue to be abnormally low next week, that would be a good sign, of course. However, all of the numbers below are updated.

I. Total deaths
Total US deaths as of yesterday: 132,107
Increase in deaths since previous day: 604
Yesterday’s 7-day rate of increase in total deaths: 3% (This number is used to project deaths in the table above; it was 4% yesterday. There is a 7-day cycle in the reported deaths numbers, caused by lack of reporting over the weekends from closed state offices. So this is the only reliable indicator of a trend in deaths, not the three-day percent increase I used to focus on, and certainly not the one-day percent increase, which mainly reflects where we are in the 7-day cycle).

II. Total reported cases
Total US reported cases: 2,891,228
Increase in reported cases since previous day: 53,616
Percent increase in reported cases since yesterday: 2%
Percent increase in reported cases since 7 days previous: 13%

III. Deaths as a percentage of closed cases so far in the US:
Total Recoveries in US as of yesterday: 1,235,965
Total Deaths as of yesterday: 132,107
Deaths so far as percentage of closed cases (=deaths + recoveries): 10% (vs. 10% yesterday)
For a discussion of what this number means – and why it’s so important – see this post. Short answer: If this percentage declines, that’s good. It’s been steadily declining since a high of 41% at the end of March.


I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com

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