Have I mentioned lack of testing before?

What caught my eye most when I updated my spreadsheet today was that the number of new cases fell dramatically yesterday, from close to 60,000 to 36,000, the lowest it has been since June. Of course, this could be simply a one-day fluke, but it’s a good idea to consider what it would mean if it continues even for just another day or two. In short: there’s no way this could be good news.

There is obviously more widespread mask usage all the time, even in the states that have had the large outbreaks yesterday. And a lot of bars have been closed again, etc. But none of these measures would cause a large drop in cases like that. However, one thing would: a decline in testing. And of course, testing declined at least 20% last week, the first time this has happened.

Did testing decline because nobody is worried about getting sick anymore, and contract tracing has gone so well that everybody who might have been exposed has been tested? Of course not. Cases are going down because the time required to get a result has climbed to 1-2 weeks in many cases. And there can  be long waits to get a test. Many people have just made the calculation that it isn’t worth taking a test since, if they are in fact infected, they won’t get the results until they’ve either recovered or died.

Of course, if someone doesn’t have symptoms but is told to get tested because they were exposed to someone who tested positive, they’re very unlikely to want to get tested in the current conditions. So they’ll continue their normal activities, potentially infecting friends, families and coworkers. In other words, the virus will continue out of control in states where testing is being held down for these reasons. Not cause for celebration, by any stretch of the imagination.

The numbers

These numbers are updated every day, based on reported US Covid-19 deaths the day before (taken from the Worldometers.info site, where I’ve been getting my numbers all along). No other variables go into the projected numbers – they are all projections based on yesterday’s 7-day rate of increase in total Covid-19 deaths, which was 5%.

Note that the “accuracy” of the projected numbers diminishes greatly after 3-4 weeks. This is because, up until 3-4 weeks, deaths could in theory be predicted very accurately, if one knew the real number of cases. In other words, the people who are going to die in the next 3-4 weeks of Covid-19 are already sick with the disease, even though they may not know it yet. But this means that the trend in deaths should be some indicator of the level of infection 3-4 weeks previous.

However, once we get beyond 3-4 weeks, deaths become more and more dependent on policies and practices that are put in place – or removed, as is more the case nowadays - after today (as well as other factors like the widespread availability of an effective treatment, if not a real “cure”). Yet I still think there’s value in just trending out the current rate of increase in deaths, since it gives some indication of what will happen in the near term if there are no significant intervening changes.

Week ending	Deaths reported during week/month	Avg. deaths per day during week/month	Deaths as percentage of previous month’s
March 7	18	3
March 14	38	5
March 21	244	35
March 28	1,928	275
Month of March	4,058	131
April 4	6,225	889
April 11	12,126	1,732
April 18	18,434	2,633
April 25	15,251	2,179
Month of April	59,812	1,994	1,474%
May 2	13,183	1,883
May 9	12,592	1,799
May 16	10,073	1,439
May 23	8,570	1,224
May 30	6,874	982
Month of May	42,327	1,365	71%
June 6	6,544	935
June 13	5,427	775
June 20	4,457	637
June 27	6,167	881
Month of June	23,925	798	57%
July 4	4,166	595
July 11	5,087	727
July 18	5,476	782
July 25	6,971	996
Month of July	26,649	860	111%
August 1	8,069	1,153
August 8	7,153	1,022
August 15	7,556	1,079
August 22	7,841	1,120
August 29	8,197	1,171
Month of August	33,119	1,068	124%
Total March – August	189,890

Red = projected numbers

I. Total deaths

Total US deaths as of yesterday: 173,139

Deaths reported yesterday: 509

Yesterday’s 7-day rate of increase in total deaths: 5% (This number is used to project deaths in the table above; it was 5% two days ago. There is a 7-day cycle in the reported deaths numbers, caused by lack of reporting over the weekends from closed state offices. So this is the only reliable indicator of a trend in deaths, not the three-day percent increase I used to focus on, and certainly not the one-day percent increase, which mainly reflects where we are in the 7-day cycle).

II. Total reported cases

Total US reported cases: 5,567,765

Increase in reported cases since previous day: 36,483

Percent increase in reported cases since 7 days previous: 7%  

III. Deaths as a percentage of closed cases so far in the US:

Total Recoveries in US as of yesterday: 2,922,929

Total Deaths as of yesterday: 173,139

Deaths so far as percentage of closed cases (=deaths + recoveries): 6%

For a discussion of what this number means – and why it’s so important – see this post. Short answer: If this percentage declines, that’s good. It’s been steadily declining since a high of 41% at the end of March. But a good number would be 2%, like South Korea’s. An OK number would be 4%, like China’s.

I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com