Not good news – but what did you expect?

 

The numbers below show that new deaths are very slowly falling. The reason for this is easily found in the ratio of deaths to closed cases, which continues to fall – indicating that treatments are steadily improving.

And the slow fall in new deaths definitely can’t be attributed to new cases falling, since yesterday’s new cases number was the highest since July 30. We’re definitely on a new upward trend in new cases, even though that figure never got anywhere close to the figure that would allow us to get the virus under control with widespread testing, contact tracing and mask wearing – even if these were at all likely to happen in the near term.

The outlook for this fall isn’t good at all, since the cool weather will just increase indoor gatherings. And since the GOP is too focused on confirming a Supreme Court Justice who will vote to overturn Roe v. Wade and the Affordable Care Act, to pass a bill that will fund a real national testing and contact tracing effort, the dispirited, uncoordinated government response to the virus will likely continue through January 20.

Dr. Fauci just recommended we forget about family gatherings on Thanksgiving. Thanks again, Donald! You’ve certainly made America great again.

The numbers

These numbers are updated every day, based on reported US Covid-19 deaths the day before (taken from the Worldometers.info site, where I’ve been getting my numbers all along). No other variables go into the projected numbers – they are all projections based on yesterday’s 7-day rate of increase in total Covid-19 deaths, which was 2.3%.

Note that the “accuracy” of the projected numbers diminishes greatly after 3-4 weeks. This is because, up until 3-4 weeks, deaths could in theory be predicted very accurately, if one knew the real number of cases. In other words, the people who are going to die in the next 3-4 weeks of Covid-19 are already sick with the disease, even though they may not know it yet. But this means that the trend in deaths should be some indicator of the level of infection 3-4 weeks previous.

However, once we get beyond 3-4 weeks, deaths become more and more dependent on policies and practices that are put in place – or removed, as is more the case nowadays - after today (as well as other factors like the widespread availability of an effective treatment, if not a real “cure”). Yet I still think there’s value in just trending out the current rate of increase in deaths, since it gives some indication of what will happen in the near term if there are no significant intervening changes.

Week ending	Deaths reported during week/month	Avg. deaths per day during week/month	Deaths as percentage of previous month’s
March 7	18	3
March 14	38	5
March 21	244	35
March 28	1,928	275
Month of March	4,058	131
April 4	6,225	889
April 11	12,126	1,732
April 18	18,434	2,633
April 25	15,251	2,179
Month of April	59,812	1,994	1,474%
May 2	13,183	1,883
May 9	12,592	1,799
May 16	10,073	1,439
May 23	8,570	1,224
May 30	6,874	982
Month of May	42,327	1,365	71%
June 6	6,544	935
June 13	5,427	775
June 20	4,457	637
June 27	6,167	881
Month of June	23,925	798	57%
July 4	4,166	595
July 11	5,087	727
July 18	5,476	782
July 25	6,971	996
Month of July	26,649	860	111%
August 1	8,069	1,153
August 8	7,153	1,022
August 15	7,556	1,079
August 22	7,552	1,079
August 29	6,675	954
Month of August	30,970	999	116%
September 5	5,961	852
September 12	5,310	759
September 19	5,696	814
September 26	5,353	765
Month of Sept.	22,809	760	75%
October 3	5,102	729
October 10	5,091	727
October 17	5,016	717
October 24	5,131	733
October 31	5,248	750
Month of Oct.	22,454	724	98%
	233,004

Red = projected numbers

I. Total deaths

Total US deaths as of yesterday: 222,717

Deaths reported yesterday: 874  

Percent increase in total deaths in the last seven days: 2.3% (This number is used to project deaths in the table above. There is a 7-day cycle in the reported deaths numbers, caused by lack of reporting over the weekends from closed state offices. So this is the only reliable indicator of a trend in deaths, not the three-day percent increase I used to focus on, and certainly not the one-day percent increase, which mainly reflects where we are in the 7-day cycle).

II. Total reported cases

Total US reported cases: 8,216,315

Increase in reported cases since previous day: 66,129

Percent increase in reported cases in the last seven days: 4.9%  

III. Deaths as a percentage of closed cases so far in the US:

Total Recoveries in US as of yesterday: 5,320,386

Total Deaths as of yesterday: 222,717

Deaths so far as percentage of closed cases (=deaths + recoveries): 4.0%

For a discussion of what this number means – and why it’s so important – see this post. Short answer: If this percentage declines, that’s good. It’s been steadily declining since a high of 41% at the end of March. But a good number would be 2%, like South Korea’s. An OK number would be 4%, like China’s.

IV. 7-day average of test positive rate for US: 5.2%

For comparison, the recent peak for this rate was 27% in late July, although the peak in late March was 75%. This is published by Johns Hopkins. As of 10/2, rate for New York state: 1.2%. For Texas: 6.0%. For Florida: 10.9%.  For Arizona: 6.2%. For California: 2.8%).

I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com