The coup failed; now comes the tsunami
There
were three hugely important news items yesterday, two of which got lots of
press and the third very little. The first was the news that President Trump’s
efforts to use the courts are at a dead end. The US Supreme Court dismissed the
very strange lawsuit from the state of Texas, asking that the election results
in four other states be thrown out because they somehow offended Texans. The court
did this in a one-sentence statement that essentially said “What is this s___??”
Of
course, this won’t end Trump’s grousing about the election results, which will
undoubtedly continue for years. But it does leave Trump in an interesting
quandry: He has known all along that he had zero chance of overturning the
election, but he realized that his efforts to do so – using a ragtag and
discredited legal team that without a doubt didn’t cost much – were a wonderful
fundraising opportunity for his new Save America PAC. In fact, of the more than
$150
million that Trump raised by emails between the election and December 1, only
a very small fraction went to the lawsuits. Donations needed to exceed $5,000
before a single penny went to the lawsuits. 3/4 of the balance went to the PAC
(to be spent pretty much as Trump wants), and ¼ to the RNC.
The
second item was the approval of the Pfizer vaccine. That of course got lots of
attention, and well-deserved. On the other hand, it will be the summer at the
earliest before the vaccine has any significant impact on the third news item
(almost completely ignored): That the US yesterday recorded more Covid deaths this
year than all US deaths from combat in World War II (291,557). Even worse, the US
is now averaging over 3,000 Covid deaths per day (of course, more than deaths
on 9/11), and the CDC says that will continue for the next three months. This
means that:
·
Covid
deaths in December will be far more than twice those of November, and close to
50% higher than April’s (which were the worst so far. Do you remember all the
refrigerator trucks?).
·
Since
3,000 deaths a day equals 90,000 deaths a month, this means deaths through March
will equal 357,000 (=my projected deaths this year, which is almost certainly
low) + 270,000 = 627,000. Hopefully, measures that Biden puts in place will
reduce the growth in deaths after that, and by the summer there should be some
reduction due to the vaccine(s). So let’s say we go down to 50,000 deaths a
month from April through June. This means total Covid deaths will be 777,000 by
the end of June. And since deaths certainly won’t end then, this means the best
case for total pandemic deaths is between 900,000 and 1 million.
·
But
the idea that deaths per day are going to hit a 3-month plateau of 3,000 and
stay there for three months isn’t at all tenable. If deaths just grow at the
current 7-day rate of 6.0%, by the end of the year, we’ll be at 3,600 deaths a
day, and that number will continue to grow. But it’s not likely that even the rate
of increase in deaths will stay at 6%. It was around 4.0% just two weeks
ago. Even if it just reaches 7%, that would add more than 12,000 deaths to each
of the monthly totals. And of course, no law says it has to stop growing at 7%.
And
here’s where the connection to the first news item comes in: Trump has done
zero to improve the Covid situation since the election and a lot to make it
worse, including hosting maskless superspreader parties in the White House and
making a point of forcing the FDA to grant emergency use authorization for the
Pfizer vaccine late last night rather than this morning, as if that were going
to make any difference at all in how quickly it will roll out. It will, however,
destroy even more people’s faith in the vaccine, since it increases the
perception that its approval was a politically-driven decision.
Wouldn’t
it be great if Trump, and his GOP enablers in the House and Senate, had paid a
little time to…you know…fighting the virus rather than doing their best
to undermine American democracy? As GOP Governor Sununu of Massachusetts said
in the Times
this morning, it would be nice for Congress to “actually do something for the
American people, surrounding the vaccines, surrounding Covid.” What a great
idea! But not likely to go anywhere, of course, at least not with Rich Mitch McConnell
in control of the Senate.
The numbers
These numbers are
updated every day, based on reported US Covid-19 deaths the day before (taken
from the Worldometers.info site, where I’ve been getting my numbers all along).
The projections are based on yesterday’s 7-day rate of increase in total
Covid-19 deaths, which was 5.9%.
Month |
Deaths reported during month |
Avg. deaths per day during
month |
Deaths as percentage of previous month’s |
Month of March |
4,058 |
131 |
|
Month of April |
59,812 |
1,994 |
1,474% |
Month of May |
42,327 |
1,365 |
71% |
Month of June |
23,925 |
798 |
57% |
Month of July |
26,649 |
860 |
111% |
Month
of August |
30,970 |
999 |
116% |
Month of Sept. |
22,809 |
760 |
75% |
Month of Oct. |
24,332 |
785 |
107% |
Month of Nov. |
38,293 |
1,276 |
157% |
Month of Dec. |
82,809 |
2,671 |
216% |
Total March-Dec. |
357,174 |
1,163 |
|
Red = projected
numbers
I. Total deaths
Total US deaths as of
yesterday: 302,762
Deaths yesterday: 3,031
Percent increase in total
deaths in the last seven days: 6.0% (This number is used to project deaths
in the table above. There is a 7-day cycle in the reported deaths numbers,
caused by lack of reporting over the weekends from closed state offices. So
this is the only reliable indicator of a trend in deaths, not the one-day
percent increase, which mainly reflects where we are in the 7-day cycle).
II. Total reported cases
Total US reported cases: 16,295,714
Increase in reported cases
since previous day: 246,761
Percent increase in reported
cases in the last seven days: 10.3%
III. Deaths as a percentage of closed cases so far in the US:
Total Recoveries in US as
of yesterday: 9,507,476
Total Deaths as of
yesterday: 302,762
Deaths so far as
percentage of closed cases (=deaths + recoveries): 3.1%
For a discussion of what this
number means – and why it’s so important – see this post. Short
answer: If this percentage declines, that’s good. It’s been steadily declining
since a high of 41% at the end of March.
IV. 7-day average of
test positive rate for US: 11.0%
For comparison, the previous peak for this rate was 7.8%
in late July, although the peak in early April was 22%. The rate got down to
4.0% in early October but has been climbing since then. This is published by
Johns Hopkins.
I would love to hear any comments or questions you have
on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com.
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