The tsunami down south

On first glance, it might seem like we’re doing pretty well. Daily new cases and new deaths were both down in March, and of course we all know that vaccinations in the US are well ahead of what almost anyone was predicting a couple of months ago. On the other hand, Michigan is getting absolutely hammered by the British variant, and it’s inevitable that that variant will surge across the country in the very near future.

The good thing about the British variant is that the vaccines approved today seem to be effective against it, although once again – just like a year ago! – a lack of testing capacity is hampering the CDC’s ability to track this variant. This time, the testing in question is genetic sequencing, which is required in order to distinguish one variant from another.

But the bad news is what’s going on in South America. Brazil has been devastated by the variant that first appeared in the city of Manaus and then spread to the whole country. I read a day or two ago that 100 Brazilians are dying of Covid every hour. That seemed like a huge number to me, but then I remembered that this equals 2,400 deaths a day. We’ve been above that level very frequently, especially this past January (when on at least a couple days we were close to 200 deaths an hour).

And the worse news is what I read in this article today – that the Brazilian variant has invaded a number of South American countries in force, and there doesn’t appear to be any stopping it at this point. It’s been in the US for at least a couple of months, although the lack of – you guessed it! – testing means the CDC can’t be sure of how far it’s spread.

So here’s the box score, in the races between vaccinations and the three major variants:

1.      The British variant is spreading widely in the US, but the vaccines are effective against it. So vaccines will ultimately win this race, although if a lot of states end up like Michigan, we’ll probably have surges in both new cases and deaths in the coming months.

2.      The South African variant hasn’t spread as much in the US, but it’s certainly here; if anything, it may spread faster than the British variant. At least some of the vaccines are effective against it, so vaccines will ultimately win this one as well.

3.      The Brazilian variant isn’t very prevalent yet in the US, but it’s inevitable it will be a major contender in 3-6 months – that is, unless the vaccines are effective against it and the pace of vaccinations doesn’t slow down short of the herd immunity level (perhaps because so many people are refusing vaccinations). It’s not known whether the vaccines are effective against it or not, and there’s a lot of evidence that the Brazilian variant infects – and kills – people who have recovered from the “standard” variant.

We’re definitely not out of the woods yet.

The numbers

These numbers are calculated based on those reported on the Worldometers.info site.

Month	Deaths reported during month	Avg. deaths per day during period	Deaths as percentage of previous month’s
Month of March 2020	4,058	131
Month of April	59,812	1,994	1,474%
Month of May	42,327	1,365	71%
Month of June	23,925	798	57%
Month of July	26,649	860	111%
Month of August	30,970	999	116%
Month of Sept.	22,809	760	75%
Month of Oct.	24,332	785	107%
Month of Nov.	38,293	1,276	157%
Month of Dec.	79,850	2,576	209%
Total 2020	354,215	1,154
Month of Jan. 2021	98,064	3,163	123%
Month of Feb.	68,918	2,461	70%
Month of March	72,693	2,345	105%
Total Pandemic so far	568,782	1,529

 

I. Total deaths

Average deaths last seven days: 894

Percent increase in total deaths in the last seven days: 1.1%

II. Total reported cases

Total US reported cases as of yesterday: 331,440,234

Increase in reported cases last 7 days: 477,431 (=68,204/day)

Percent increase in reported cases in the last seven days: 1.5%  

III. Deaths as a percentage of closed cases so far in the US:

Total Recoveries in US as of yesterday: 24,058,562

Deaths so far as percentage of closed cases (=deaths + recoveries): 2.3%

For a discussion of what this number means – and why it’s so important – see this post. Short answer: If this percentage declines, that’s good. It has been declining since a high of 41% at the end of March 2020.   

I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com.