Modi moves decisively against coronavirus (news)!

The rate of increase in total cases in the US continues to drop rapidly. The weekly rate of increase in cases has dropped .2% for each of the last 5 or 6 weeks, and now stands at .5%. Of course, if it were to continue to drop at that rate, we would have no new cases in about three weeks. Nobody expects that to happen, but hopefully we’ll get to the point where your chances of catching Covid are no more than your chances of catching the flu and – more importantly – the consequences if you catch it are no more serious than those of the flu.

Of course, annual flu deaths aren’t negligible: they’re ranged between 12,000 and 61,000 since 2010. It’s very possible that the best we can hope for is to keep them in this range. But the important thing is getting vaccinated, since even if you do catch the coronavirus after you’ve been vaccinated, your chances of being hospitalized or dying drop precipitously. And you’ll probably have to be vaccinated every year. Hopefully, people who refuse to be vaccinated will add these facts together and realize that they’re taking unnecessary risks with their lives by persisting on this course. And if they persist in not getting vaccinated – absent a medical reason why they shouldn’t – this will just show that natural selection is still at work.

Unfortunately, India’s problems are definitely not due to natural selection, since most Indians don’t currently have the choice whether to be vaccinated or not. And they are dying in horrific numbers. The Times this morning estimated total Covid deaths in India so far to be in a range of 600,000 (i.e. about tied with the US) to 1.6 million. What’s their best guess for the actual number? 1.3 million. This compares to the official count of around 300,000.

However, there’s good news: Prime Minister Modi is taking decisive action! But there’s also bad news: He’s putting all of his efforts into suppressing news of the virus, as if the 1.3 million dead weren’t speaking eloquently on their own. Suppressing the virus itself? Sure, that’s important, too, but it’s definitely a secondary consideration. Just read this story in WaPo about the ongoing disaster in the state of Uttar Pradesh (whose population is so large that if it were a country, it would be the fifth-largest in the world).

The numbers

These numbers were updated based on those reported on the Worldometers.info site for Sunday, May 23.

Month	Deaths reported during month	Avg. deaths per day during period	Deaths as percentage of previous month’s
Month of March 2020	4,058	131
Month of April	59,812	1,994	1,474%
Month of May	42,327	1,365	71%
Month of June	23,925	798	57%
Month of July	26,649	860	111%
Month of August	30,970	999	116%
Month of Sept.	22,809	760	75%
Month of Oct.	24,332	785	107%
Month of Nov.	38,293	1,276	157%
Month of Dec.	79,850	2,576	209%
Total 2020	354,215	1,154
Month of Jan. 2021	98,064	3,163	123%
Month of Feb.	68,918	2,461	70%
Month of March	72,693	2,345	105%
Month of April	47,593	1,598	66%
Total Pandemic so far	604,174	1,325

 

I. Total deaths (as of Sunday)

Average deaths last seven days: 566

Percent increase in total deaths in the last seven days: 0.7%

II. Total reported cases (as of Sunday)

Total US reported cases as of Sunday: 33,904,805

Increase in reported cases last 7 days: 181,676 (= 25,594/day)

Percent increase in reported cases in the last seven days: 0.5%  

I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com.