No, things aren’t getting better now

In my post last week, I pointed out that, while overall Covid deaths had jumped significantly over the past few weeks, there was possibly a good sign in the fact that average daily deaths had fallen from over 1500 to 1100 in the past week. However, that drop turned out to be ephemeral, as daily deaths went back up to around 1500 last week.

However, average daily new cases peaked the week of Aug. 22, and have been going down steadily since then, including last week. So if that trend continues, deaths can be expected to decline again; we can only hope so.

However, the impact on the economy was revealed in the employment report last week, which showed that only 235,000 jobs were added in July, vs. over one million in June. In normal times, when we’re not digging out from a huge employment hole, 235,000 would be a good number. But as things stand now, it’s a clear indication that the fourth Covid wave (or first Delta wave, if you will) has at least for the moment displaced the forces that were making for a strong recovery this fall. And as the weather cools down and people are inside more, it’s unlikely that the economy will resume its strong upward trend, until – dare I say it? – a lot more of the country is vaccinated.

But if you were thinking (as I once was) that we would reach herd immunity at some point, where the novel coronavirus would become more like the coronavirus that causes many cases of the common cold: a nuisance, but something that seldom kills anyone. The level of vaccinations required for herd immunity with Delta is probably over 90% now (vs. around 70% previously) because of is much great transmissibility, but I’ve read that, even if we had 90% of the people fully vaccinated (which may never happen), given that the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines only provide about 94% immunity, this means it’s statistically impossible to have herd immunity now.

In other words, get used to the new normal, where we might always have to have restrictions in place – including mask wearing – at various times (especially winter, of course). And where we’ll all need to get annual booster shots, just like we’re supposed to do for the flu now.

And pray that the new Mu variant, which might actually bypass current vaccines, doesn’t take hold. In that case, we’re back in March 2020. We’ll have to get those refrigerator trucks back from Texas.

The numbers

These numbers were updated based on those reported on the Worldometers.info site for Sunday, September 5.

Month	Deaths reported during month	Avg. deaths per day during period	Deaths as percentage of previous month’s
Month of March 2020	4,058	131
Month of April	59,812	1,994	1,474%
Month of May	42,327	1,365	71%
Month of June	23,925	798	57%
Month of July	26,649	860	111%
Month of August	30,970	999	116%
Month of Sept.	22,809	760	75%
Month of Oct.	24,332	785	107%
Month of Nov.	38,293	1,276	157%
Month of Dec.	79,850	2,576	209%
Total 2020	354,215	1,154
Month of Jan. 2021	98,604	3,181	119%
Month of Feb.	68,918	2,461	70%
Month of March	37,945	1,224	55%
Month of April	24,323	811	64%
Month of May	19,843	661	82%
Month of June	10,544	351	53%
Month of July	8,833	287	84%
Month of August	31,160	1,005	351%
Total Pandemic so far	666,219	1,188

 

I. Total deaths (as of Sunday)

Total US reported Covid deaths as of Sunday: 666,219

Average deaths last seven days: 1,485  

Average deaths previous seven days: 1,078

Percent increase in total deaths in the last seven days: 1.6%

II. Total reported cases (as of Sunday)

Total US reported cases as of Sunday: 40,805,259

Increase in reported cases last 7 days: 978,193 (= 139,742/day)

Increase in reported cases previous 7 days: 1,107,425 (= 178,989/day)

Percent increase in reported cases in the last seven days: 1.6%  

I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com.