Not quite time for the champagne


I read in several sources over the weekend that the US is finally on the downward slope of the Delta variant spike. However, look at the numbers: In the past week, daily deaths increased from 1,520 to 1,945. And daily new cases increased from 101,218 to 109,636. That doesn’t look like a downward slope to me.

In fact, the daily new case number of 101,000 from the previous week, the week of September 26, was suspiciously low – the lowest since the week of August 3. I’m sure there wasn’t any intentional obfuscation, but this one-week drop certainly didn’t mean we were out of the woods.  As long as there are substantial numbers of non-vaccinated people, and as long as the delta variant rules - and especially as winter approaches - it’s hard to see how we’re going to find ourselves at the daily new cases numbers of last June (13,874) or even July (38,809) – BTW, daily new cases in September were 139,056.

The numbers

These numbers were updated based on those reported on the Worldometers.info site for Sunday, October 3.

Month

Deaths reported during month

Avg. deaths per day during period

Deaths as percentage of previous month’s

Month of March 2020

4,058

131

 

Month of April

59,812

1,994

1,474%

Month of May

42,327

1,365

71%

Month of June

23,925

798

57%

Month of July

26,649

860

111%

Month of August

30,970

999

116%

Month of Sept.

22,809

760

75%

Month of Oct.

24,332

785

107%

Month of Nov.

38,293

1,276

157%

Month of Dec.

79,850

2,576

209%

Total 2020

354,215

1,154

 

Month of Jan. 2021

98,604

3,181

119%

Month of Feb.

68,918

2,461

70%

Month of March

37,945

1,224

55%

Month of April

24,323

811

64%

Month of May

19,843

661

82%

Month of June

10,544

351

53%

Month of July

8,833

287

84%

Month of August

31,160

1,005

351%

Month of Sept.

56,687

1,890

182%

Total Pandemic so far

717,163

1,218

 

 

I. Total deaths (as of Sunday)

Total US reported Covid deaths as of Sunday: 719,933

Average daily deaths last seven days: 1,945  

Average daily deaths previous seven days: 1,520

Percent increase in total deaths in the last seven days: 1.9%

II. Total reported cases (as of Sunday)

Total US reported cases as of Sunday: 44,518,437

Increase in reported cases last 7 days: 767,454 (= 109,636/day)

Increase in reported cases previous 7 days: 708,524 (= 101,218/day)

Percent increase in reported cases in the last seven days: 1.8%  

I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com.

 

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