Does “40 times higher chance of death” mean anything to you?

The title of a WaPo article this week says it all: “Unvaccinated Texans 40 times as likely to die of covid as those fully vaccinated in 2021, study says”. One would think that figures like this one (and they’re probably not too much different in most states. No matter where you live, your odds of dying of Covid are much higher if you’re not vaccinated) would make a lot of people realize what they’re doing to themselves, and make a lot of broadcasters realize they’re literally killing their fans.

One would think.

 

Notice below that deaths aren’t declining now. Moreover, new cases are actually rising, and have been for three weeks. And now it looks like they’re rising again in the northern states, as – of course – people stay indoors more. Are we heading for a fifth wave, that will build through the holidays and hit full force in January – just like the third wave did? Of course, the third wave turned out to be the worst of the pandemic, and there’s no way a fifth wave will be anywhere near as bad. But the idea that we’re even talking about another wave now is pretty depressing. 

The numbers

These numbers were updated based on those reported on the Worldometers.info site for Sunday, November 7.

Month

Deaths reported during month

Avg. deaths per day during period

Deaths as percentage of previous month’s

Month of March 2020

4,058

131

 

Month of April

59,812

1,994

1,474%

Month of May

42,327

1,365

71%

Month of June

23,925

798

57%

Month of July

26,649

860

111%

Month of August

30,970

999

116%

Month of Sept.

22,809

760

75%

Month of Oct.

24,332

785

107%

Month of Nov.

38,293

1,276

157%

Month of Dec.

79,850

2,576

209%

Total 2020

354,215

1,154

 

Month of Jan. 2021

98,604

3,181

119%

Month of Feb.

68,918

2,461

70%

Month of March

37,945

1,224

55%

Month of April

24,323

811

64%

Month of May

19,843

661

82%

Month of June

10,544

351

53%

Month of July

8,833

287

84%

Month of August

31,160

1,005

351%

Month of Sept.

56,687

1,890

182%

Month of Oct.

49,992

1,613

88%

Total Pandemic so far

767,155

1,258

 

 

I. Total deaths (as of Sunday)

Total US reported Covid deaths as of Sunday: 776,544

Average daily deaths last seven days: 1,341

Average daily deaths previous seven days: 1,331

Percent increase in total deaths in the last seven days: 1.2%

II. Total reported cases (as of Sunday)

Total US reported cases as of Sunday: 47,415,172

Increase in reported cases last 7 days: 527,371 (=73,023/day)

Increase in reported cases previous 7 days: 511,164 (=75,339/day)

Percent increase in reported cases in the last seven days: 1.1%  

I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com.

 

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