Cue the refrigerator trucks

In my previous post two days ago, I put out a pretty scary estimate of over 80,000 deaths per week in the near future, due to the Omicron wave. I said it would start this week, but I was basing that on the current case numbers, which of course have gone through the roof. However, I should have lagged the prediction and said it’s for 3-4 weeks from now.

Of course, it’s cold comfort to say that Armageddon is still coming, but it’s just delayed by a month. The real question is, do I stand by that high number – especially since I admitted that, since it was based partly on data from the delta variant period, it was almost certainly too high? I don’t now, because I just saw a story that points out that the CDC said that omicron is nine-tenths less deadly – or ten percent as deadly - than delta (I also saw a story saying that in South Africa it seemed to be 15% as deadly, so that’s in the ballpark).

Ten percent of 80,000 is 8,000. So, since we’re currently at around 13,000 deaths a week, it seems like by itself omicron might result in lower deaths than delta (of course, 8,000 deaths a week is 2 ½ times the 9/11 toll every week. I originally thought that exceeding 9/11 would be a big deal but clearly it isn’t. Nobody pays attention to numbers like that anymore, including me).

However, it seems likely the death rate from omicron will be pushed up by something else: the sheer number of hospitalizations, and the increasing absentee and quit rates of healthcare workers. This is due to their catching Covid themselves (or at least having to isolate), as well as the burnout they’re feeling after having fought delta and getting little thanks - and in many cases outright hostility - from their neighbors. Compounding the problem is the workers’ resentment over the fact that we wouldn’t be in this situation of overflowing hospitals if we had a high vaccination rate – instead, the US is in the bottom half of wealthy countries in terms of vaccinations. You should read Ed Yong’s excellent article about this problem in the Atlantic.

As you can see, the rate of increase in new cases (i.e. the second derivative, or rate of change of the rate of change) may have peaked, but at 5 million new cases a week, we’re hardly in fat city. It’s very possible that the hospital overcrowding itself will cause a significant increase in deaths from where we are now. Moreover, Jude Gamel pointed out to me that this is usually the time for a flu wave so a lot of the deaths from overcrowding might be recorded as flu deaths.

As far as I know, you’re just as dead if you die of flu as if you die of Covid. But if you think a Covid vaccination is a huge imposition and a threat to your liberty, you certainly aren’t the sort of person who gets flu shots. This means you might have your choice as to how you’ll die. Who said this isn’t a great country? Where else do people have such choice?

The numbers

These numbers were updated based on those reported on the Worldometers.info site for Sunday, January 16.

Month

Deaths reported during month/year

Avg. deaths per day during month/year

Deaths as percentage of previous month/year

Month of March 2020

4,058

131

 

Month of April

59,812

1,994

1,474%

Month of May

42,327

1,365

71%

Month of June

23,925

798

57%

Month of July

26,649

860

111%

Month of August

30,970

999

116%

Month of Sept.

22,809

760

75%

Month of Oct.

24,332

785

107%

Month of Nov.

38,293

1,276

157%

Month of Dec.

79,850

2,576

209%

Total 2020

354,215

1,154

 

Month of Jan. 2021

98,604

3,181

119%

Month of Feb.

68,918

2,461

70%

Month of March

37,945

1,224

55%

Month of April

24,323

811

64%

Month of May

19,843

661

82%

Month of June

10,544

351

53%

Month of July

8,833

287

84%

Month of August

31,160

1,005

351%

Month of Sept.

56,687

1,890

182%

Month of Oct.

49,992

1,613

88%

Month of Nov.

38,364

1,279

77%

Month of Dec.

41,452

1,337

108%

Total 2021

492,756

1,350

158%

Total Pandemic so far

873,564

1,285

 

I. Total deaths (as of Sunday)

Total US reported Covid deaths as of Sunday: 873,564

Average daily deaths last seven days: 1,855

Average daily deaths previous seven days: 1,881

Percent increase in total deaths in the last seven days: 1.5%

II. Total reported cases (as of Sunday)

Total US reported cases as of Sunday: 66,995,533

Increase in reported cases last 7 days: 4,969,529 (709,933)

Increase in reported cases previous 7 days: 5,883,829 (840,547/day)

Increase in reported cases two weeks previous (week ending 12/25): 2,919,731 (417,104/day)

Percent increase in reported cases in the last seven days: 8.0% (10.5% last week)

I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com.

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