Cue the refrigerator trucks
In my previous post two days ago, I put out a pretty scary estimate of over 80,000 deaths per week in the near future, due to the Omicron wave. I said it would start this week, but I was basing that on the current case numbers, which of course have gone through the roof. However, I should have lagged the prediction and said it’s for 3-4 weeks from now.
Of
course, it’s cold comfort to say that Armageddon is still coming, but it’s just
delayed by a month. The real question is, do I stand by that high number –
especially since I admitted that, since it was based partly on data from the
delta variant period, it was almost certainly too high? I don’t now, because I
just saw a story that points out that the CDC said that omicron is
nine-tenths less deadly – or ten percent as deadly - than delta (I also saw a
story saying that in South Africa it seemed to be 15% as deadly, so that’s in
the ballpark).
Ten percent of 80,000 is 8,000. So, since we’re currently
at around 13,000 deaths a week, it seems like by itself omicron might
result in lower deaths than delta (of course, 8,000 deaths a week is 2 ½ times
the 9/11 toll every week. I originally thought that exceeding 9/11 would be a
big deal but clearly it isn’t. Nobody pays attention to numbers like that
anymore, including me).
However, it seems likely the death rate from omicron will
be pushed up by something else: the sheer number of hospitalizations, and the
increasing absentee and quit rates of healthcare workers. This is due to their
catching Covid themselves (or at least having to isolate), as well as the burnout
they’re feeling after having fought delta and getting little thanks - and in
many cases outright hostility - from their neighbors. Compounding the problem
is the workers’ resentment over the fact that we wouldn’t be in this situation
of overflowing hospitals if we had a high vaccination rate – instead, the US is
in the bottom half of wealthy countries in terms of vaccinations. You should
read Ed Yong’s excellent article
about this problem in the Atlantic.
As you can see, the rate of increase in new cases (i.e.
the second derivative, or rate of change of the rate of change) may have
peaked, but at 5 million new cases a week, we’re hardly in fat city. It’s very
possible that the hospital overcrowding itself will cause a significant increase
in deaths from where we are now. Moreover, Jude Gamel pointed out to me that
this is usually the time for a flu wave so a lot of the deaths from
overcrowding might be recorded as flu deaths.
As far as I know, you’re just as dead if you die of flu as
if you die of Covid. But if you think a Covid vaccination is a huge imposition
and a threat to your liberty, you certainly aren’t the sort of person who gets
flu shots. This means you might have your choice as to how you’ll die. Who said
this isn’t a great country? Where else do people have such choice?
The numbers
These numbers were
updated based on those reported on the Worldometers.info site for Sunday, January
16.
Month |
Deaths
reported during month/year |
Avg. deaths per
day during month/year |
Deaths as
percentage of previous month/year |
Month of March 2020 |
4,058 |
131 |
|
Month of April |
59,812 |
1,994 |
1,474% |
Month of May |
42,327 |
1,365 |
71% |
Month of June |
23,925 |
798 |
57% |
Month of July |
26,649 |
860 |
111% |
Month
of August |
30,970 |
999 |
116% |
Month of Sept. |
22,809 |
760 |
75% |
Month of Oct. |
24,332 |
785 |
107% |
Month of Nov. |
38,293 |
1,276 |
157% |
Month of Dec. |
79,850 |
2,576 |
209% |
Total 2020 |
354,215 |
1,154 |
|
Month of Jan. 2021 |
98,604 |
3,181 |
119% |
Month of Feb. |
68,918 |
2,461 |
70% |
Month of March |
37,945 |
1,224 |
55% |
Month of April |
24,323 |
811 |
64% |
Month of May |
19,843 |
661 |
82% |
Month of June |
10,544 |
351 |
53% |
Month of July |
8,833 |
287 |
84% |
Month of August |
31,160 |
1,005 |
351% |
Month of Sept. |
56,687 |
1,890 |
182% |
Month of Oct. |
49,992 |
1,613 |
88% |
Month of Nov. |
38,364 |
1,279 |
77% |
Month of Dec. |
41,452 |
1,337 |
108% |
Total 2021 |
492,756 |
1,350 |
158% |
Total Pandemic so far |
873,564 |
1,285 |
|
I. Total deaths (as of Sunday)
Total US reported Covid
deaths as of Sunday: 873,564
Average daily deaths last
seven days: 1,855
Average daily deaths previous
seven days: 1,881
Percent increase in total
deaths in the last seven days: 1.5%
II. Total reported cases (as
of Sunday)
Total US reported cases
as of Sunday: 66,995,533
Increase in reported
cases last 7 days: 4,969,529 (709,933)
Increase in reported
cases previous 7 days: 5,883,829 (840,547/day)
Increase in reported
cases two weeks previous (week ending 12/25): 2,919,731 (417,104/day)
Percent increase in
reported cases in the last seven days: 8.0% (10.5% last week)
I would love to hear any comments or questions you have
on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com.
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