We have passed 900,000 Covid deaths.

Regarding Covid cases, there’s good news and bad news. The good news is that total reported new cases are coming down as expected. The bad news (well, one piece of bad news) is that total new cases on Sunday, Jan. 30 would have been a pandemic-long record just three weeks ago, meaning total cases are still far too high. And adding to this the fact that there are certainly a large number of non-reported cases, given the widespread use of at-home tests now, it’s hardly time to talk about not wearing a mask indoors and not getting vaccinated and boosted.

Regarding deaths, there’s bad news and good news. The bad news is that average daily deaths last week were 2,570, which is a record since last February (when we were coming down from the third wave, the worst yet) – and of course they’re going up each week. When will deaths start to come down?

The omicron variant has been much less deadly so far per infected person, and if that relationship continues, deaths will peak 3-4 weeks from now. But if, for example, it turns out omicron is just as deadly but it takes an infected person much longer to die, then we could be in a situation two or three months from now, in which we’re experiencing pandemic records for new deaths (i.e. in the 4,000+ per day range), even though new cases have dropped significantly.

Or another, even more transmissible, variant may come along. And then all bets are off.

But there’s one bet that looks like a sure thing: We will surpass one million deaths for the pandemic. We passed 900,000 last week, and we’re moving with a full head of steam. But don’t take that statement as encouragement to sacrifice your hard-won liberty not to get vaccinated. At least you’ll have died to help us get to the million mark! That’s something your family can proudly engrave on your tombstone.

The numbers

These numbers were updated based on those reported on the Worldometers.info site for Sunday, January 30.

Month	Deaths reported during month/year	Avg. deaths per day during month/year	Deaths as percentage of previous month/year
Month of March 2020	4,058	131
Month of April	59,812	1,994	1,474%
Month of May	42,327	1,365	71%
Month of June	23,925	798	57%
Month of July	26,649	860	111%
Month of August	30,970	999	116%
Month of Sept.	22,809	760	75%
Month of Oct.	24,332	785	107%
Month of Nov.	38,293	1,276	157%
Month of Dec.	79,850	2,576	209%
Total 2020	354,215	1,154
Month of Jan. 2021	98,604	3,181	119%
Month of Feb.	68,918	2,461	70%
Month of March	37,945	1,224	55%
Month of April	24,323	811	64%
Month of May	19,843	661	82%
Month of June	10,544	351	53%
Month of July	8,833	287	84%
Month of August	31,160	1,005	351%
Month of Sept.	56,687	1,890	182%
Month of Oct.	49,992	1,613	88%
Month of Nov.	38,364	1,279	77%
Month of Dec.	41,452	1,337	108%
Total 2021	492,756	1,350	158%
Total Pandemic so far	907,190	1,307

 

I. Total deaths (as of Sunday)

Total US reported Covid deaths as of Sunday: 907,190

Average daily deaths last seven days: 2,570  

Average daily deaths previous seven days: 2,233

Percent increase in total deaths in the last seven days: 2.0%

II. Total reported cases (as of Sunday)

Total US reported cases as of Sunday: 75,578,076

Increase in reported cases last 7 days: 3,652,145 (521,735)

Increase in reported cases previous 7 days: 4,930,398 (704,343)

Percent increase in reported cases in the last seven days: 5.1% (7.4% last week)

I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com.