We're on the way down, all right...

The good thing about looking at numbers is they let you see through the c___ that other people are pushing. I wish I had a dollar for every report I’ve heard about the omicron wave having crested, as if that means anything important. If a tsunami hits and you drown, it’s probably more likely that you’ll drown after the crest has passed. Will it comfort your family any that you drowned after the peak?

Consider the following:

1.      In the worst week of the worst of the previous waves (in terms of deaths) – last January’s – there were fewer than 300,000 daily new cases, and in November (remember November, when Delta was on the way out and we were sure we were on our way to recovery? Nobody except Greeks had heard of omicron), daily new cases were under 100,000. During the recent week ending Jan. 2, daily new cases set a record at 417,000, which was almost exactly double the number from the previous week. Unfortunately, that was the first of three records.

2.      True, last week there was a decline in average daily new cases – from 709,000 to 704,000. What a stunning decline! If we keep it up at this rate, it will take only two years (well, a little more than that) to get back to November’s (already high) level! Where’s that champagne I’d set aside for this occasion? Of course, daily cases will hopefully decline at a faster rate than 5,000 a week. But that assumes there won’t be an even-more-infectious variant following right behind omicron.

3.      Aha, you say, but what about deaths? Everyone – including the CDC – agrees that omicron is much less deadly on a per-case basis than previous variants. That’s true, but when daily new cases have close to quadrupled in a month (and even more importantly, the reported case numbers are undoubtedly big underestimates, since it’s unlikely that most people who have a positive test at home report it), you’re still going to get a lot of deaths.

4.      And sure enough, daily Covid deaths increased about 400 last week to 2,233, which is just above the record for the entire delta wave. And it’s just about certain that deaths will continue to increase in coming weeks, since an increase in cases causes an increase in deaths starting 3 or 4 weeks later, but of course continuing beyond that.

5.      And this doesn’t consider at all the fact that the healthcare system is in a state of slow collapse, due to covid overcrowding and the general burnout of healthcare workers (for some reason, the idea that they’re endangering their lives day to day, in order to save a bunch of yahoos who aren’t getting vaccinated because they listen to what Fox News says – not what Fox News does, of course – about vaccines being not only unnecessary but dangerous, and who berate them in the media and sometimes right before they get put on a ventilator in preparation for their “celestial discharge” from the hospital, is kind of grating on the health care workers. Imagine that!). Deaths from a lot of other diseases will probably go up and stay up for a long time after the current covid wave subsides (and not just deaths. I heard a doctor talking on NPR about how she’s doing multiple leg amputations on diabetics per week, when previously it was a rare occurrence. But diabetics, like a lot of others, are waiting too long to come to the hospital, since they’re afraid they’ll catch covid when they do).

Other than that, we can clearly see the light at the end of the tunnel. Just like Gen. Westmoreland said about the Vietnam War in 1967.

The numbers

These numbers were updated based on those reported on the Worldometers.info site for Sunday, January 23.

Month	Deaths reported during month/year	Avg. deaths per day during month/year	Deaths as percentage of previous month/year
Month of March 2020	4,058	131
Month of April	59,812	1,994	1,474%
Month of May	42,327	1,365	71%
Month of June	23,925	798	57%
Month of July	26,649	860	111%
Month of August	30,970	999	116%
Month of Sept.	22,809	760	75%
Month of Oct.	24,332	785	107%
Month of Nov.	38,293	1,276	157%
Month of Dec.	79,850	2,576	209%
Total 2020	354,215	1,154
Month of Jan. 2021	98,604	3,181	119%
Month of Feb.	68,918	2,461	70%
Month of March	37,945	1,224	55%
Month of April	24,323	811	64%
Month of May	19,843	661	82%
Month of June	10,544	351	53%
Month of July	8,833	287	84%
Month of August	31,160	1,005	351%
Month of Sept.	56,687	1,890	182%
Month of Oct.	49,992	1,613	88%
Month of Nov.	38,364	1,279	77%
Month of Dec.	41,452	1,337	108%
Total 2021	492,756	1,350	158%
Total Pandemic so far	889,197	1,294

 

I. Total deaths (as of Sunday)

Total US reported Covid deaths as of Sunday: 889,197

Average daily deaths last seven days: 2,233  

Average daily deaths previous seven days: 1,855

Percent increase in total deaths in the last seven days: 1.8%

II. Total reported cases (as of Sunday)

Total US reported cases as of Sunday: 71,925,931

Increase in reported cases last 7 days: 4,930,398 (704,343)

Increase in reported cases previous 7 days: 4,969,529 (709,933/day)

Percent increase in reported cases in the last seven days: 7.4% (8.0% last week)

I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com.