Déjà vu all over again

Today, WaPo ran a story pointing out the contrast between this Memorial Day and last year’s. The main difference? The reported Covid infection numbers are five times higher this year than last. And that understates the difference, since home testing was almost nonexistent then, yet it’s widespread now. How many cases identified at home get reported? Nobody knows, but I doubt it’s even 50%. So the actual cases are more than five times higher this year than last, perhaps ten times higher.

What’s the main similarity between now and then? Widespread optimism that we’ve got this thing beaten. And was the optimism justified last year? Yes it was…at first. The whole month of July, daily deaths averaged below 300. But then they started growing again to 1-2,000 a day late in the year, as Delta took hold. Then they averaged over 2,000 a day this past January, due to Omicron (remember Omicron? That mild disease that wasn't going to kill anybody? As it was revealed this week, it took a huge toll on the elderly, even though they were vaccinated).

Anybody who thinks we’re out of the pandemic now is living in a fool’s paradise. The summer will be tolerable, simply because people are outdoors a lot (in the North, not so much in the South). But it’s hard to see what’s going to prevent a big, deadly wave this winter, since we’ve more or less abandoned all efforts to prevent infections.

I’m wearing a mask when indoors with other people now – all the time. And I’m certainly not alone. 

The numbers

These numbers were updated based on those reported on the Worldometers.info site for Sunday, May 29.

Month	Deaths reported during month/year	Avg. deaths per day during month/year	Deaths as percentage of previous month/year
Month of March 2020	4,058	131
Month of April	59,812	1,994	1,474%
Month of May	42,327	1,365	71%
Month of June	23,925	798	57%
Month of July	26,649	860	111%
Month of August	30,970	999	116%
Month of Sept.	22,809	760	75%
Month of Oct.	24,332	785	107%
Month of Nov.	38,293	1,276	157%
Month of Dec.	79,850	2,576	209%
Total 2020	354,215	1,154
Month of Jan. 2021	98,604	3,181	119%
Month of Feb.	68,918	2,461	70%
Month of March	37,945	1,224	55%
Month of April	24,323	811	64%
Month of May	19,843	661	82%
Month of June	10,544	351	53%
Month of July	8,833	287	84%
Month of August	31,160	1,005	351%
Month of Sept.	56,687	1,890	182%
Month of Oct.	49,992	1,613	88%
Month of Nov.	38,364	1,279	77%
Month of Dec.	41,452	1,337	108%
Total 2021	492,756	1,350	158%
Month of Jan. 2022	65,855	2,124	159%
Month of Feb. 2022	63,451	2,266	96%
Month of March 2022	31,427	1,014	50%
Month of April 2022	13,297	443	42%
Total Pandemic so far	1,031,279	1,280

 

I. Total deaths (as of Sunday)

Total US reported Covid deaths as of Sunday: 1,031,279

Average daily deaths last seven days: 334

Average daily deaths previous seven days: 299

Percent increase in total deaths in the last seven days: 0.2%

II. Total reported cases (as of Sunday)

Total US reported cases as of Sunday: 85,723,732

Increase in reported cases last 7 days: 704,069 (100,581)

Increase in reported cases previous 7 days: 696,187 (99,455/day)

Percent increase in reported cases in the last seven days: 0.8% (0.8% last week)

I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com.