For this time of year, we’re doing very badly

As I pointed out last week, daily reported new cases are now a huge multiple of what they were a year ago at this time. Last week, they were eight times higher. And that’s an underestimate, since there are so many tests being conducted at home now, vs. very few a year ago. If the person never has to go to the hospital or the doctor, a mild or asymptomatic case will probably never be reported.

Granted the new variants are less deadly, but as we saw in January, the lower mortality rate can be overwhelmed by the number of cases. If we have this many new cases in the summer months, when people are less likely to be in indoor gatherings, we’ll probably be lulled into a false sense of well-being. This was the case last July 4, when Biden all but declared victory over the virus (and the CDC dropped mask requirements, which was criticized by many at the time and proved to be a mistake. Of course, they’re dropped now, but nobody has the heart to call for them to be put back in place, even though that would probably help a lot).

Unfortunately, we’re probably likely to repeat what happened last year: after a deceptively healthy summer, there will be another big wave in the fall, although this time with much higher case numbers and deaths back over a thousand per day. And just like last year, the deaths will probably be almost entirely among the unvaccinated. This will once again be a completely self-inflicted wound.

This chart shows where we stand vs. the other industrialized countries. If you look at who’s ahead of us – Russia, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa – we’re not exactly in the best of company. But hey…We give people a lot more rights than other countries do…the right to kill schoolkids with an AR-15, the right to die because the person refuses to be vaccinated, the right for a woman to die during childbirth because she couldn’t get an abortion for a medical condition…What’s there not to like about all of this?

The numbers

These numbers were updated based on those reported on the Worldometers.info site for Sunday, June 12.

Month

Deaths reported during month/year

Avg. deaths per day during month/year

Deaths as percentage of previous month/year

Month of March 2020

4,058

131

 

Month of April 2020

59,812

1,994

1,474%

Month of May 2020

42,327

1,365

71%

Month of June 2020

23,925

798

57%

Month of July 2020

26,649

860

111%

Month of August 2020

30,970

999

116%

Month of Sept. 2020

22,809

760

75%

Month of Oct. 2020

24,332

785

107%

Month of Nov. 2020

38,293

1,276

157%

Month of Dec. 2020

79,850

2,576

209%

Total 2020

354,215

1,154

 

Month of Jan. 2021

98,604

3,181

119%

Month of Feb. 2021

68,918

2,461

70%

Month of March 2021

37,945

1,224

55%

Month of April 2021

24,323

811

64%

Month of May 2021

19,843

661

82%

Month of June 2021

10,544

351

53%

Month of July 2021

8,833

287

84%

Month of August 2021

31,160

1,005

351%

Month of Sept. 2021

56,687

1,890

182%

Month of Oct. 2021

49,992

1,613

88%

Month of Nov. 2021

38,364

1,279

77%

Month of Dec. 2021

41,452

1,337

108%

Total 2021

492,756

1,350

158%

Month of Jan. 2022

65,855

2,124

159%

Month of Feb. 2022

63,451

2,266

96%

Month of March 2022

31,427

1,014

50%

Month of April 2022

13,297

443

42%

Month of May 2022

11,474

370

86%

Total Pandemic so far

1,036,204

1,264

 

I. Total deaths (as of Sunday)

Total US reported Covid deaths as of Sunday: 1,036,204

Average daily deaths last seven days: 373

Average daily deaths previous seven days: 330

Percent increase in total deaths in the last seven days: 0.3%

II. Total reported cases (as of Sunday)

Total US reported cases as of Sunday: 87,477,251

Increase in reported cases last 7 days: 954,690 (136,484/day)

Increase in reported cases previous 7 days: 798,829 (114,118/day)

Percent increase in reported cases in the last seven days: 1.1% (0.9% last week)

I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com.

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