No comfort in this week’s numbers

Some observations from this week’s numbers:

1.      New cases are increasing at the highest rate since early February.

2.      New deaths certainly aren’t going down, but it’s too early to say they’re trending up. Even then, 370 deaths a day would be a catastrophe, if they had any other cause (say, mass shootings or airline crashes).

3.      We’re averaging 826,419 new cases a day, vs. 256,044 a year ago. And that doesn’t include cases identified by home testing. Plus, given that the incidence of vaccination hasn’t increased at all since last year (see last week’s post) and about 100% of the people being hospitalized and dying are unvaccinated, this means that we can’t look for salvation from vaccinations.

I was in a group yesterday that was discussing online whether to have an in-person meeting in September. The consensus was not to risk it. In fact, my guess is a lot of in-person meetings scheduled for the fall will end up going back online, even before it is certain whether or not there will be a big fall wave. You don’t want to let it get to the point where people have booked their travel, and then you decide to cancel.

The numbers

These numbers were updated based on those reported on the Worldometers.info site for Sunday, June 26.

Month	Deaths reported during month/year	Avg. deaths per day during month/year	Deaths as percentage of previous month/year
Month of March 2020	4,058	131
Month of April 2020	59,812	1,994	1,474%
Month of May 2020	42,327	1,365	71%
Month of June 2020	23,925	798	57%
Month of July 2020	26,649	860	111%
Month of August 2020	30,970	999	116%
Month of Sept. 2020	22,809	760	75%
Month of Oct. 2020	24,332	785	107%
Month of Nov. 2020	38,293	1,276	157%
Month of Dec. 2020	79,850	2,576	209%
Total 2020	354,215	1,154
Month of Jan. 2021	98,604	3,181	119%
Month of Feb. 2021	68,918	2,461	70%
Month of March 2021	37,945	1,224	55%
Month of April 2021	24,323	811	64%
Month of May 2021	19,843	661	82%
Month of June 2021	10,544	351	53%
Month of July 2021	8,833	287	84%
Month of August 2021	31,160	1,005	351%
Month of Sept. 2021	56,687	1,890	182%
Month of Oct. 2021	49,992	1,613	88%
Month of Nov. 2021	38,364	1,279	77%
Month of Dec. 2021	41,452	1,337	108%
Total 2021	492,756	1,350	158%
Month of Jan. 2022	65,855	2,124	159%
Month of Feb. 2022	63,451	2,266	96%
Month of March 2022	31,427	1,014	50%
Month of April 2022	13,297	443	42%
Month of May 2022	11,474	370	86%
Total Pandemic so far	1,040,947	1,248

 

I. Total deaths (as of Sunday)

Total US reported Covid deaths as of Sunday: 1,040,947

Average daily deaths last seven days: 370

Average daily deaths previous seven days: 307

Percent increase in total deaths in the last seven days: 0.2%

II. Total reported cases (as of Sunday)

Total US reported cases as of Sunday: 88,857,731

Increase in reported cases last 7 days: 826,419 (118,060)

Increase in reported cases previous 7 days: 554,067 (79,152/day)

Percent increase in reported cases in the last seven days: 0.9% (0.6% last week)

I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com.