The problem isn’t just Covid…

I’ve gotten used to daily Covid death rates of around 350-500, so I was shocked to realize a moment ago, when I computed the 2022 annual numbers, that the daily rate for last year was 744. However, a quick glance at the monthly 2022 numbers tells the whole story: During the first three months of the year, daily deaths averaged close to 2,000 a day, as the first Omicron wave hit. Yet, daily deaths were 443 in April, and stayed around there the rest of the year.

In other words, 744 Covid deaths a day for 2022 is pretty good, compared to the same statistic for the pandemic as a whole (so far, of course) – that number is 1,094, as you can see at the bottom of the chart below. In other words, since the beginning of March 2020, the US has averaged about 1100 Covid deaths every day, which amounts to about 3100 deaths per million population.

While there are about 12 small countries that have a higher per capita Covid death rate, the only large country with a higher rate is Brazil. Of course, this is no comfort at all, given the aggressive efforts by Bolsonaro to attain the highest possible death rate during the pandemic (of course, some states had much higher per capita death rates. Mississippi claimed the crown among US states with 4400 deaths per million, although they were in almost a dead heat with Oklahoma).

Meanwhile, William Galston, one of the Wall Street Journal’s most reasonable columnists (a low bar to clear, I’ll admit), published a good column this week titled “America is a sick society – literally” (the article is behind the WSJ’s paywall. If you drop me an email, I’ll send you the PDF). It begins, “For most of my life, I rejected the assertion that America is a “sick society”. He continues, “Over the past two decades, however, I’ve increasingly questioned my earlier confidence. Now, in the wake of the pandemic, I’ve concluded that I was wrong.”

He somewhat contradicts the second statement when he continues, “In 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic struck, we ranked 29th among the 38 member nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. U.S. life expectancy trailed Germany’s by 2.5 years, Canada’s by 3.2 years, and France’s by four years.” In other words, he really should have been questioning his optimistic belief long before the pandemic hit. However, for someone whose paycheck comes from the WSJ (which of course fought Obamacare tooth and nail), it’s not surprising it took him so long to realize the truth.

What is the evidence that we’re a sick society? He lists:

·        High infant mortality (we’re 33^rd in the world, behind every European and Asian OECD country)

·        A much higher Covid death rate than most high income countries (e.g., 332 US deaths per 100,000 population vs. 128 Canadian deaths. Do you still wonder why Canada closed off all travel to and from the US for a year or so?). Our higher Covid death rate increased the gap between our life expectancy and those of other countries. For example, our gap with France went up 50%, to six years. Hmm, is it possible there are actually some benefits to single-payer health care, rather than it being the unmitigated evil that so many media outlets – and not just conservative ones – say it is? But don’t worry – we do lead France in one important healthcare metric. We spend more than twice as much per capita as they do (in fact, no other country in the world comes anywhere near our number).

·        But don’t worry. High infant mortality and high Covid mortality aren’t the only advantages the US has, in the tough race to the bottom in life expectancy. We also have significant advantages in drug overdoses, obesity and – how could we forget? – gun violence.

Galston’s penultimate paragraph reads:

In sum, we Americans seem less able than others to control our appetites and tempers, and we are far more likely to resort to mood-altering drugs with lethal effects. We don’t care enough about healthy infants to give new parents in lower-income families the help they need. And despite our wealth, advanced health technology and world-leading healthcare expenditure per capita, our public-health system has performed poorly under stress.

But other than these quibbles, we’re a very healthy society!

The numbers

These numbers were updated based on those reported on the Worldometers.info site for Sunday, January 1.

Month	Deaths reported during month/year	Avg. deaths per day during month/year	Deaths as percentage of previous month/year
Month of March 2020	4,058	131
Month of April 2020	59,812	1,994	1,474%
Month of May 2020	42,327	1,365	71%
Month of June 2020	23,925	798	57%
Month of July 2020	26,649	860	111%
Month of August 2020	30,970	999	116%
Month of Sept. 2020	22,809	760	75%
Month of Oct. 2020	24,332	785	107%
Month of Nov. 2020	38,293	1,276	157%
Month of Dec. 2020	79,850	2,576	209%
Total 2020	354,215	1,154
Month of Jan. 2021	98,604	3,181	119%
Month of Feb. 2021	68,918	2,461	70%
Month of March 2021	37,945	1,224	55%
Month of April 2021	24,323	811	64%
Month of May 2021	19,843	661	82%
Month of June 2021	10,544	351	53%
Month of July 2021	8,833	287	84%
Month of August 2021	31,160	1,005	351%
Month of Sept. 2021	56,687	1,890	182%
Month of Oct. 2021	49,992	1,613	88%
Month of Nov. 2021	38,364	1,279	77%
Month of Dec. 2021	41,452	1,337	108%
Total 2021	492,756	1,350	158%
Month of Jan. 2022	65,855	2,124	159%
Month of Feb. 2022	63,451	2,266	96%
Month of March 2022	31,427	1,014	50%
Month of April 2022	13,297	443	42%
Month of May 2022	11,474	370	86%
Month of June 2022	11,109	370	97%
Month of July 2022	11,903	384	107%
Month of August 2022	16,199	540	136%
Month of September 2022	13,074	436	81%
Month of October 2022	12,399	400	95%
Month of November 2022	9,221	307	74%
Month of December 2022	11,978	386	130%
Total 2022	271,387	744	-45%
Total Pandemic so far	1,118,376	1,094

 

I. Total deaths (as of Sunday)

Total US reported Covid deaths as of Sunday:          1,118,376

Average daily deaths last seven days: 445

Average daily deaths previous seven days: 327

Percent increase in total deaths in the last seven days: 0.2%

II. Total reported cases (as of Sunday)

Total US reported cases as of Sunday: 102,668,952          

Increase in reported cases last 7 days: 432,857 (61,837/day)

Increase in reported cases previous 7 days: 475,946 (67,992/day)

Percent increase in reported cases in the last seven days: 0.4% (0.5% last week)

I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com.