The fourth wave has hit. But has it crested?


There’s no question that we’re in a fourth wave. Hopefully, this will be nowhere near as bad as the previous three, but there’s no guarantee of that, either. Both new cases and deaths jumped sharply in the past week, as did their 7-day growth rates. Given what’s going on in Michigan now, as well as other states, this shouldn’t be a big surprise to anybody. If you want to compare these numbers to last week's, go to this post.

The numbers

These numbers are calculated based on those reported on the Worldometers.info site for April 11.

Month

Deaths reported during month

Avg. deaths per day during period

Deaths as percentage of previous month’s

Month of March 2020

4,058

131

 

Month of April

59,812

1,994

1,474%

Month of May

42,327

1,365

71%

Month of June

23,925

798

57%

Month of July

26,649

860

111%

Month of August

30,970

999

116%

Month of Sept.

22,809

760

75%

Month of Oct.

24,332

785

107%

Month of Nov.

38,293

1,276

157%

Month of Dec.

79,850

2,576

209%

Total 2020

354,215

1,154

 

Month of Jan. 2021

98,064

3,163

123%

Month of Feb.

68,918

2,461

70%

Month of March

72,693

2,345

105%

Total Pandemic so far

575,838

1,391

 

 

I. Total deaths

Average deaths last seven days: 1,445

Percent increase in total deaths in the last seven days: 1.8%

II. Total reported cases

Total US reported cases as of yesterday: 31,933,621

Increase in reported cases last 7 days: 761,888 (=68,204/day)

Percent increase in reported cases in the last seven days: 2.4%  

III. Deaths as a percentage of closed cases so far in the US:

Total Recoveries in US as of yesterday: 24,561,404

Deaths so far as percentage of closed cases (=deaths + recoveries): 2.3%

For a discussion of what this number means – and why it’s so important – see this post. Short answer: If this percentage declines, that’s good. It has been declining since a high of 41% at the end of March 2020.   

I would love to hear any comments or questions you have on this post. Drop me an email at tom@tomalrich.com.

 

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